026
FXUS64 KEPZ 152007
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
207 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, BECOMING BREEZY
ON SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING
DUST, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE, MODELS SHOW WEAK TROUGHING FORMING OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FROM
DEMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, THE
BORDERLAND WILL BE UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREA WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS DUE TO
VERY WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS THEN
SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE BAJA ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST STATE OF SONORA IN MEXICO. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN SHOW THE OPEN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO
THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE, FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN WITH THE MID LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN STATE OF
SORONA IN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TREKKING NORTHEAST OVER
THE GILA/BLACK AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING IMPACTS
TO THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH CURVING OUT OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. PEAK
GUSTS IN THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AND 50-55 MPH RANGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY AROUND 2 TO 4 MPH
HIGHER IN BOTH THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH MORE ISSUES
WITH BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
AS THE MID LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT IS RIGHT OVER THE BORDERLAND ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, WINDS WILL COME CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD THAT
WOULD GENERATE WIND PRODUCTS. FOR TUESDAY, THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO TAMPER DOWN AS THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
TAKES HOLD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY,
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO WITH
WINDS OVER LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH WINDS TURNING TO
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE
BORDERLAND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CULBERSON COUNTY, TX AS FLOW AT 700MB
IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE, RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSTANCE TO
DETER ANY CONVECTION THOUGH IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, THUS
BARELY MENTIONABLE POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN ANALYSIS OF LONGER TERM
ENSEMBLES SHOWS AROUND A 26% CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY, AND ROUGHLY A 50-60% CHANCE SOUTH OF FABENS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
CIRCUS FIELD CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KT THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN AND AROUND 21Z BEFORE SLOWLY
DYING OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY DUST IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH TO DEMING FROM THE USUAL
SOURCES, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH ANY DROPS IN VISIBILITY LIKELY TO
BE BRIEF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS WITH LOWER TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. BY SATURDAY, ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA WITH BREEZES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, VERY LOW RH VALUES, AND
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND BACK TO BACK DAYS OF
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE BORDERLAND. BY
TUESDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND APPEARS LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 50 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 63 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 48 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 45 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 91 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 48 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 47 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 53 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 51 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 74 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 79 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 45 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 31 78 36 76 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 42 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 42 85 46 83 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 34 81 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 82 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 47 87 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 86 53 84 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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