470
FXUS64 KEPZ 281731
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1131 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE
(CURRENT TD'S 40-45F IN FAR WEST TX), CREATING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. TODAY WILL BE PRETTY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS REACHING FURTHER WEST
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN FAR EASTERN AREAS AGAIN (SFC CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG IN MID- AFTERNOON) WITH DCAPE OF NEAR 1500. STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, LOFTING DUST AND REDUCING
VISIBILITY QUICKLY. A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR E
HUDSPETH AND OTERO MESA FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, LIKE
TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE CONVECTION IS 2-5PM,
DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS THE RGV. GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST
CAN BE SEEN EVEN WHERE IT REMAINS DRY TO THE WEST. THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES BY 7PM THIS EVENING. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS THE CAP. STILL, LOW
STORM CHANCES REMAIN EAST OF THE RGV WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HABOOBS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN INTERESTING PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE FROM AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE E-PAC IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT'S
SPINNING AWAY OFF THE BAJA. CLOUDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
REACHES OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP
CHANCES (PWS OVER 1") SAT-MON WHILE THE GFS IS PRETTY DRY (GEFS
MEAN PWS AT 0.8-1"). FOR NOW, LOW- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS BY, DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN. THE MOISTURE
IS PUSHED TO THE EAST AS W-SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES TO END
THE PERIOD. SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN MONDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT PASSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
P6SM FEW100 FEW-SCT200-250 THROUGH PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
BKN060-080 UNTIL 01Z EAST OF ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA BLANCA LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY SE TO SW AOB 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE W TO NW
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE VERY DRY WEST OF THE RGV BUT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS (<10 MPH) WHILE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERS TO THE EAST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST
OF THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE STARTS
POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES BY SUNSET. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS POPPING UP EAST OF THE RGV.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS SPREADS AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING LOW-MEDIUM. DRY LIGHTNING BECOMES LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH LOWERING RHS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 5-10% WEST OF THE RGV THROUGH THU, 10-25%
EAST; RISING TO 15-35% AREAWIDE SAT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 69 99 69 / 20 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 88 62 92 60 / 20 10 30 30
LAS CRUCES 91 60 95 62 / 20 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 91 60 94 60 / 20 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 68 48 69 48 / 20 0 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 91 61 94 63 / 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 84 56 87 60 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 94 54 97 62 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 91 57 94 59 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 68 97 68 / 20 10 10 10
DELL CITY 91 63 93 62 / 20 10 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 96 65 100 65 / 20 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 86 62 88 61 / 20 10 20 20
FABENS 94 66 100 66 / 20 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 91 64 95 67 / 20 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 91 68 97 68 / 20 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 91 56 95 60 / 20 0 10 10
HATCH 94 58 97 61 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 94 63 97 66 / 10 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 90 63 93 63 / 20 10 20 20
MAYHILL 78 52 79 53 / 20 10 40 20
MESCALERO 79 53 80 52 / 20 0 30 20
TIMBERON 76 49 78 50 / 20 10 30 20
WINSTON 82 46 86 48 / 10 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 89 58 93 58 / 10 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 90 56 93 58 / 10 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 86 40 86 43 / 10 0 10 10
HURLEY 87 53 90 55 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 91 44 91 46 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 87 42 89 44 / 10 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 86 55 90 60 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 92 58 95 59 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 91 58 94 59 / 10 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 58 93 58 / 10 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 87 59 88 60 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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