857
FXUS64 KEPZ 290841
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
TODAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW (TEENS AND 20S) WEST OF THE US 54
CORRIDOR, KEEPING STORM CHANCES NEAR ZERO. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER,
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND TD'S INTO THE 40S WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
HAS UPGRADED AREAS EAST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR TO A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY RESULT FROM DECENT
BULK SHEAR AS WELL (20-30KTS). STORMS ARE MODELED TO KICK OFF IN
THE SACS AROUND NOON, THEN DEVELOP IN THE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
HUDSPETH AND OTERO MESA BEFORE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE CWA BY
6PM. STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS (DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY KICK UP DUST
AND REDUCE VISIBILITY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN INTERESTING PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE FROM AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE E-PAC (CURRENTLY TD ONE-E) IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT'S SPINNING AWAY OFF THE BAJA. CLOUDS INCREASE ON
FRIDAY WITH A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY EXCITED ABOUT INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY WITH 50TH PERCENTILE NBM AT 1000-1500 J/KG SFC CAPE IN THE
MID-AFTERNOON (75TH APPROACHES 2000), SO IF WE STAY CLEAR OF
CLOUDS, FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL COULD BE CONCERNS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE DESERT SW THIS
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS. PW ANOMALIES OF
ABOUT TWICE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL ARE MODELED FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY PM WHEN THE
UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH AZ AND SCOOPS UP THE BULK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. LESS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SAT-MON, SO
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WON'T BE AS STRONG AS THU/FRI. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL, FAR WEST TX IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVIER
TOTALS (30-50% CHANCE OF 0.5" OR MORE) SAT-MON.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS BY THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY, DRY
W-SW FLOW RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE
SPRING-LIKE PATTERN. LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD.
SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
MONDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT PASSES. EL PASO HAS ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 100 TODAY FOR THE 3RD TIME IN 2025.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS...
ESPECIALLY KDMN. SKIES WILL VARY FROM SKC TO FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT
THROUGH 16-17Z. AFT 17Z...FEW100-130 POSSIBLE OVER KELP/KLRU/KTCS
WITH FEW/SCT250 ABOVE. AFT 20Z ISOL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF
KELP/KLRU/KTCS WITH VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY OCCURRENCE WITHIN
10SM OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 3-5KT RANGE. AFT
18Z...WINDS GENERALLY SE-S-SW IN THE 5-15KT RANGE...KTCS WITH
GUSTS 15-20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE VERY DRY WEST OF THE US 54 CORRIDOR BUT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<= 10 MPH) WHILE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERS
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNSET.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS SPREADS AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING LOW-MEDIUM. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WETTING
RAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP MOISTEN THE DRY FUELS THAT WE'VE
HAD AND LOWER FIRE DANGER. THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS MONDAY WITH LOWERING RHS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 5-10% WEST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR TODAY, 10-25% EAST;
RISING TO 15-35% AREAWIDE SAT. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT
TODAY, FAIR TO VERY GOOD FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 100 68 94 69 / 10 0 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA 93 60 83 61 / 30 20 50 50
LAS CRUCES 95 61 91 63 / 10 0 30 50
ALAMOGORDO 96 60 92 61 / 20 0 30 40
CLOUDCROFT 72 46 69 47 / 30 10 50 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 95 63 93 65 / 10 0 20 30
SILVER CITY 87 57 87 57 / 0 0 20 30
DEMING 98 61 94 64 / 0 0 20 40
LORDSBURG 93 59 92 60 / 0 0 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 97 68 91 69 / 10 0 30 50
DELL CITY 96 61 86 62 / 40 20 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 101 65 93 66 / 30 20 50 50
LOMA LINDA 90 61 83 62 / 20 10 30 50
FABENS 100 66 93 66 / 20 10 40 50
SANTA TERESA 95 64 91 65 / 10 0 30 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 97 67 92 69 / 10 0 30 50
JORNADA RANGE 95 59 92 60 / 10 0 30 50
HATCH 98 59 94 62 / 10 0 30 40
COLUMBUS 98 63 94 67 / 0 0 30 50
OROGRANDE 95 63 90 64 / 20 0 30 40
MAYHILL 82 49 78 50 / 40 10 50 40
MESCALERO 83 49 81 51 / 30 10 50 30
TIMBERON 81 47 76 48 / 30 10 40 40
WINSTON 87 49 85 51 / 0 0 20 30
HILLSBORO 94 57 91 58 / 0 0 20 30
SPACEPORT 95 57 91 59 / 10 0 20 40
LAKE ROBERTS 89 52 89 54 / 0 0 20 30
HURLEY 90 56 90 57 / 0 0 20 30
CLIFF 93 57 95 58 / 0 0 20 20
MULE CREEK 89 56 91 58 / 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 90 59 88 60 / 0 0 20 40
ANIMAS 94 58 93 60 / 0 0 20 30
HACHITA 94 57 91 60 / 0 0 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 94 59 91 60 / 0 0 30 50
CLOVERDALE 87 59 88 61 / 0 0 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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