758
FXUS64 KEPZ 291855
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1255 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
TODAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW (TEENS AND 20S) WEST OF THE US 54
CORRIDOR, KEEPING STORM CHANCES NEAR ZERO. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER,
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND TD'S INTO THE 40S WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
HAS UPGRADED AREAS EAST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR TO A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY RESULT FROM DECENT
BULK SHEAR AS WELL (20-30KTS). STORMS ARE MODELED TO KICK OFF IN
THE SACS AROUND NOON, THEN DEVELOP IN THE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
HUDSPETH AND OTERO MESA BEFORE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE CWA BY
6PM. STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS (DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY KICK UP DUST
AND REDUCE VISIBILITY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN INTERESTING PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE FROM AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE E-PAC (CURRENTLY TD ONE-E) IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW THAT'S SPINNING AWAY OFF THE BAJA. CLOUDS INCREASE ON
FRIDAY WITH A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY EXCITED ABOUT INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY WITH 50TH PERCENTILE NBM AT 1000-1500 J/KG SFC CAPE IN THE
MID-AFTERNOON (75TH APPROACHES 2000), SO IF WE STAY CLEAR OF
CLOUDS, FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL COULD BE CONCERNS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE DESERT SW THIS
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS. PW ANOMALIES OF
ABOUT TWICE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL ARE MODELED FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY PM WHEN THE
UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH AZ AND SCOOPS UP THE BULK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. LESS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SAT-MON, SO
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WON'T BE AS STRONG AS THU/FRI. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL, FAR WEST TX IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVIER
TOTALS (30-50% CHANCE OF 0.5" OR MORE) SAT-MON.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS BY THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY, DRY
W-SW FLOW RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE
SPRING-LIKE PATTERN. LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD.
SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
MONDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT PASSES. EL PASO HAS ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 100 TODAY FOR THE 3RD TIME IN 2025.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THEY
WILL BE FAIRLY THIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PUSHED WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS MOSTLY MIXED OUT EAST OF THE SAN ANDRES/ORGAN AND
FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS, AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE OTERO MESA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OF ELP AND ALL OTHER TERMINALS
TODAY, THOUGH SOME BREEZY OUTFLOW WILL PUSH BACK INTO ELP
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH GUSTS LIKELY UNDER 30 KNOTS.
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AT ELP, BUT
THIS RISK WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE VERY DRY WEST OF THE US 54 CORRIDOR BUT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (<= 10 MPH) WHILE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERS
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNSET.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS SPREADS AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING LOW-MEDIUM. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WETTING
RAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP MOISTEN THE DRY FUELS THAT WE'VE
HAD AND LOWER FIRE DANGER. THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS MONDAY WITH LOWERING RHS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 5-10% WEST OF THE 54 CORRIDOR TODAY, 10-25% EAST;
RISING TO 15-35% AREAWIDE SAT. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT
TODAY, FAIR TO VERY GOOD FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 94 69 93 / 0 40 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 60 85 59 86 / 10 50 40 50
LAS CRUCES 62 91 63 90 / 0 40 40 30
ALAMOGORDO 60 92 61 90 / 0 30 40 40
CLOUDCROFT 46 70 47 67 / 10 50 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 93 65 91 / 0 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 58 87 58 84 / 0 40 30 40
DEMING 60 94 64 93 / 0 30 40 30
LORDSBURG 58 93 60 91 / 0 20 30 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 91 69 90 / 0 40 50 40
DELL CITY 61 86 61 89 / 10 30 30 40
FORT HANCOCK 65 94 65 93 / 10 40 50 40
LOMA LINDA 61 84 61 84 / 0 40 40 30
FABENS 66 94 66 93 / 10 40 50 40
SANTA TERESA 64 91 65 90 / 0 40 50 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 92 68 91 / 0 50 50 40
JORNADA RANGE 59 92 60 90 / 0 40 40 40
HATCH 59 94 62 93 / 0 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 63 94 66 92 / 0 30 50 30
OROGRANDE 63 90 63 88 / 0 40 40 30
MAYHILL 48 78 50 78 / 20 60 30 50
MESCALERO 49 81 51 78 / 10 50 30 50
TIMBERON 47 77 48 75 / 10 50 40 40
WINSTON 49 85 51 83 / 0 20 30 40
HILLSBORO 56 91 59 88 / 0 20 40 40
SPACEPORT 56 91 59 90 / 0 30 40 30
LAKE ROBERTS 45 89 54 86 / 0 30 30 50
HURLEY 55 89 57 87 / 0 30 40 40
CLIFF 57 94 58 92 / 0 30 30 40
MULE CREEK 48 91 56 88 / 0 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 59 89 60 86 / 0 30 40 40
ANIMAS 57 93 60 91 / 0 20 30 30
HACHITA 57 91 60 90 / 0 20 40 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 91 61 89 / 0 30 40 40
CLOVERDALE 58 88 61 85 / 0 20 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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