791
FXUS64 KEPZ 300533
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1133 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER OTERO,
HUDSPETH, AND EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE.
- EASTERLY WINDS COULD BRING A FEW 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS TO WEST EL
PASO OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- QUIETER, DRIER, AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
OBS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SLOSHED INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS MIXED OUT TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT, BUT 40S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN POOLED IN THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND UP AROUND THE
HUECO MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER VALLEY BELOW SOCORRO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CU ALONG THE SAN ANDRES RANGE, THEN JUST
EAST OF THE EL PASO-HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE. THIS PRETTY MUCH MARKS
THE WESTWARD EDGE OF ANY REALISTIC PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE ODD ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
POP OFF ALONG WESTWARD-MIGRATING OUTFLOW LATER THIS EVENING. OTERO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, THOUGH WE'VE LIKELY SEEN OUR STRONGEST STORM OF THE DAY
JUST IN THE PAST HOUR OVER THE OTERO MESA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN TONIGHT, AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE FRANKLINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE NAM IS
PARTICULARLY MOIST, AND BRINGS 50S DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE ARIZONA
LINE BY DAWN, WHILE THE GFS IS MORE REALISTIC IN KEEPING THE 50S
DEWS NO FURTHER WEST THAN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NAM ALSO
TRIES TO HOLD ONTO 50S DEWPOINTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, EVEN IN
THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NM. WHILE 850-700 MB DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WE'RE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE THINGS MIX OUT TO THE MID-40S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WEST OF ELP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE DEEPER
INSTABILITY TOMORROW (SBCAPE >1000 J/KG) WILL LIKELY LURK EAST OF
ELP, WITH STILL NOTABLE-FOR-MAY VALUES AROUND 500-750 J/KG LURKING
ACROSS LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE IN A WEAK-FORCING ENVIRONMENT AS A CLOSED LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND A WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TX. SO EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
LOWLAND INITIATION DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS AND
INTERACTIONS WITH TERRAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST MONSOON-
LIKE, IF YOU IGNORE THE HUGE UPPER LOW AND THE WESTERLIES AT JET
STREAM LEVEL.
THAT BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THIS COULD KICK OFF SOME STRONGER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT, GIVEN THEIR TRAJECTORIES, WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO PULL DUST INTO THE EL PASO AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE LOW LEVEL SE FLOW GETS A LITTLE INTERRUPTED HEADING INTO
SATURDAY, LIMITING THE GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS,
BRINGING DRIER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE AREA, BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT, INCLUDING THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN. MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER FORCING
WILL MEAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AS IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
ALVIN'S MOISTURE WILL GET WRUNG OUT OVER THE SIERRA MADRES WELL TO
OUR SOUTH.
MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY, BUT WITH LIMITED DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, OUTSIDE OF ANY NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. DRIER AND
QUIETER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY, THOUGH WE MAY START
SEEING DIURNAL DRYLINE SLOSHING OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND OTERO
COUNTY LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO TREND TO 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TODAY (THU) LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY WE'LL SEE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR DIED OFF. WE
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH OUR WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS, THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GET A LITTLE GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE SOME
OFF AND ON HIGH CEILINGS TONIGHT, THEN WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OTERO MESA AND DOWN INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT,
WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL REGIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY, WITH BREEZIER WEST WINDS RETURNING FOR MONDAY. THE
WETTING RAINS WILL GENERALLY HELP TO QUELL THE DRY FUELS AND
LOWER FIRE DANGER INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NEW STARTS COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ANY OUTFLOW
WINDS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 94 69 93 / 0 40 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 60 85 59 86 / 10 50 40 50
LAS CRUCES 62 91 63 90 / 0 40 40 30
ALAMOGORDO 60 92 61 90 / 0 30 40 40
CLOUDCROFT 46 70 47 67 / 10 50 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 93 65 91 / 0 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 58 87 58 84 / 0 40 30 40
DEMING 60 94 64 93 / 0 30 40 30
LORDSBURG 58 93 60 91 / 0 20 30 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 91 69 90 / 0 40 50 40
DELL CITY 61 86 61 90 / 10 30 30 40
FORT HANCOCK 65 94 65 93 / 10 40 50 40
LOMA LINDA 61 84 61 84 / 0 40 40 30
FABENS 66 94 66 93 / 10 40 50 40
SANTA TERESA 64 91 65 90 / 0 40 50 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 92 68 91 / 0 50 50 40
JORNADA RANGE 59 92 60 90 / 0 40 40 40
HATCH 59 94 62 93 / 0 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 63 94 66 92 / 0 30 50 30
OROGRANDE 63 90 63 88 / 0 40 40 30
MAYHILL 48 78 50 78 / 20 60 30 50
MESCALERO 49 81 51 78 / 10 50 30 50
TIMBERON 47 77 48 75 / 10 50 40 40
WINSTON 49 85 51 83 / 0 20 30 40
HILLSBORO 56 91 59 88 / 0 20 40 40
SPACEPORT 56 91 59 90 / 0 30 40 30
LAKE ROBERTS 45 89 54 86 / 0 30 30 50
HURLEY 55 89 57 87 / 0 30 40 40
CLIFF 57 94 58 92 / 0 30 30 40
MULE CREEK 48 91 56 88 / 0 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 59 89 60 86 / 0 30 40 40
ANIMAS 57 93 60 91 / 0 20 30 30
HACHITA 57 91 60 90 / 0 20 40 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 91 61 89 / 0 30 40 40
CLOVERDALE 58 88 61 85 / 0 20 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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