926
FXUS64 KEPZ 301200
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
600 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- EASTERLY WINDS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO WEST EL PASO
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS.
- DRIER AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRYING OUT SOME. MOIST OUTFLOW SWEPT WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S TO 50
DEGREES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOIST
AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS
WITH THIS SURGE ARE IN THE 50S TO 60 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME RGB SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SACS AND
UP ALONG THE GUADALUPE MTNS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING OROGRAPHICALLY BY AROUND NOON TIME, WITH THE
LOWLANDS CATCHING UP BY LATER AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S NORTHWEST TO 50S SOUTHEAST AND PWS AROUND .50 INCH
NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 1.00 INCH SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA
TONIGHT AS SOME MEXICAN STORMS MOVE UP. INTERESTINGLY, GFS SHOWS
DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
PROVIDING A BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS. DECENT SHEAR,
MODEST CAPE VALUES SHOW STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, AND
DCAPE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO SLACKEN OFF A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION AS
DEWPOINTS DROP SOME AS AIRMASS MIXES OUT BETTER-STILL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA SUNDAY, BRINGING UP THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN
AMONG OTHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCES. THUS EXPECT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS AREAS WEST OF DEMING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE.
UPPER LOW LIFTS UP INTO UTAH MONDAY AND BEGINS SCOURING OUT THE
MOISTURE. STILL SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA, BUT IN THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY. BY TUESDAY DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE 30S. NEXT
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TO THE NORTHERN BAJA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS AND BETTER
TRACKING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH NBM DRY SOLUTION FOR BOTH
TUE/WED. MUCH DRIER THUR/FRI AS WESTERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT
DEVELOPS. HEIGHTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ALL INCREASE AS DO THE 850 MB
TEMPS, SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS UNTIL 15Z...SCT-BKN080 PATCHY 1-3SM BR.
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED BKN-OVC050CB
3-5SM -TSRA WITH THESE STORMS MORE ISOLATED AND DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFTER 22Z. MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 06Z.
PEA-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS EAST 7-10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH
10-15G25 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY RELAXED THROUGH MONDAY AS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DESPITE THIS HELPFUL MOISTURE, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, WITH
SOME LUCK THE FIRE ZONES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
OF 50-60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. NON THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
THOUGH AFTERNOON BREEZES COULD PICK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRYING
TREND BEGINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO ELEVATED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY 15-25% THROUGH
MONDAY AND 20-35% TO THE EAST. GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS 15-25%
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE SACS 25-40% THROUGH MONDAY. RH ALL ZONES
DECREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TODAY
AND FRIDAY, BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 94 69 94 71 / 30 40 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 85 61 87 63 / 40 30 40 20
LAS CRUCES 91 63 91 65 / 30 40 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 92 61 91 63 / 40 30 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 70 44 68 46 / 40 30 40 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 93 63 92 65 / 20 20 20 20
SILVER CITY 86 58 84 60 / 30 30 30 30
DEMING 94 61 94 63 / 30 30 20 30
LORDSBURG 93 59 92 61 / 20 20 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 91 70 91 72 / 30 40 20 30
DELL CITY 86 62 91 64 / 20 20 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 94 66 94 68 / 30 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 83 61 84 63 / 30 30 30 30
FABENS 94 67 94 69 / 30 40 20 30
SANTA TERESA 91 65 91 67 / 30 40 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 92 68 92 70 / 40 40 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 92 60 91 62 / 30 40 30 30
HATCH 94 60 94 62 / 30 30 30 30
COLUMBUS 94 64 93 66 / 20 40 20 30
OROGRANDE 90 64 89 66 / 30 30 30 30
MAYHILL 77 47 78 49 / 40 30 40 20
MESCALERO 80 48 78 50 / 40 30 40 20
TIMBERON 76 46 75 48 / 30 30 30 20
WINSTON 83 48 83 50 / 10 20 30 20
HILLSBORO 90 56 88 58 / 20 30 30 30
SPACEPORT 91 57 91 59 / 20 30 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 87 47 86 43 / 20 30 40 30
HURLEY 88 55 87 57 / 20 30 30 30
CLIFF 94 50 93 50 / 20 10 30 30
MULE CREEK 90 45 88 47 / 10 10 30 20
FAYWOOD 88 59 86 61 / 20 30 30 30
ANIMAS 93 58 92 60 / 10 20 30 30
HACHITA 91 58 91 60 / 20 30 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 59 90 61 / 20 40 30 40
CLOVERDALE 87 58 85 60 / 10 30 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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