081
FXUS64 KEPZ 301913
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
113 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- EASTERLY WINDS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO WEST EL PASO
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS.
- DRIER AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
0.6-0.8" WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. ALOFT,
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN A
REGION OF LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. WIND SHEAR IS QUITE LACKING, WITH
ONLY SUBTLE BACKING FLOW IN MID-LEVELS. MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
WITHIN 500-300MB LAYER, TO BE REALIZED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES THIS AFTERNOON CREATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE.
WEAKLY FORCED, OUTFLOW-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
SAN ANDRES, AND BLACK RANGE PEAKS CURRENTLY FIRING RIGHT NOW.
LOWLAND COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW FORCING LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL SHOWS NO LOWLAND CUMULUS FIELD AS OF 1 PM, FURTHER
CONFIRMING A LATE START TO STORM CHANCES TONIGHT. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT
OF CHIHUAHUA BETWEEN 6-8 PM. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER LIFTING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. BEST CHANCE FOR EL PASO/LAS CRUCES MAY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET
WITH OUTFLOW-INDUCED STORMS BETWEEN 8-10 PM. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BLOWING DUST AND HABOOBS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE.
EXPECT LOWLAND STORM COVERAGE AROUND 15-25% THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL. STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT WITH
THE THREAT ENDING FOR ALL LOCAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRYING OUT SOME. MOIST OUTFLOW SWEPT WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S TO 50
DEGREES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOIST
AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS
WITH THIS SURGE ARE IN THE 50S TO 60 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME RGB SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SACS AND
UP ALONG THE GUADALUPE MTNS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING OROGRAPHICALLY BY AROUND NOON TIME, WITH THE
LOWLANDS CATCHING UP BY LATER AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S NORTHWEST TO 50S SOUTHEAST AND PWS AROUND .50 INCH
NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 1.00 INCH SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA
TONIGHT AS SOME MEXICAN STORMS MOVE UP. INTERESTINGLY, GFS SHOWS
DEFORMATION ZONE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
PROVIDING A BETTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS. DECENT SHEAR,
MODEST CAPE VALUES SHOW STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, AND
DCAPE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS THE BIGGEST
THREAT.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO SLACKEN OFF A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION AS
DEWPOINTS DROP SOME AS AIRMASS MIXES OUT BETTER-STILL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA SUNDAY, BRINGING UP THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN
AMONG OTHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCES. THUS EXPECT UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS AREAS WEST OF DEMING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE.
UPPER LOW LIFTS UP INTO UTAH MONDAY AND BEGINS SCOURING OUT THE
MOISTURE. STILL SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA, BUT IN THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY. BY TUESDAY DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE 30S. NEXT
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TO THE NORTHERN BAJA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS AND BETTER
TRACKING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH NBM DRY SOLUTION FOR BOTH
TUE/WED. MUCH DRIER THUR/FRI AS WESTERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT
DEVELOPS. HEIGHTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ALL INCREASE AS DO THE 850 MB
TEMPS, SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATER IN THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ABOUT 30-40
PERCENT AT ELP, WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR OUTFLOW WINDS COMING FROM
THE SOUTH BRINGING IN SOME DUST AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT LRU AND DMN, MAINLY AFTER
00Z, WITH SIMILAR OUTFLOW/DUST CONCERNS.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF ELP.
MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 06Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY RELAXED THROUGH MONDAY AS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DESPITE THIS HELPFUL MOISTURE, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, WITH
SOME LUCK THE FIRE ZONES, ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
OF 50-60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. NON THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
THOUGH AFTERNOON BREEZES COULD PICK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRYING
TREND BEGINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO ELEVATED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY 15-25% THROUGH
MONDAY AND 20-35% TO THE EAST. GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS 15-25%
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE SACS 25-40% THROUGH MONDAY. RH ALL ZONES
DECREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TODAY
AND FRIDAY, BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 95 72 98 / 40 20 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 61 88 62 91 / 40 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 62 92 64 94 / 30 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 62 91 65 95 / 20 30 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 49 70 / 20 60 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 93 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 58 87 59 87 / 10 20 20 20
DEMING 64 95 64 95 / 30 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 62 93 62 91 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 92 71 94 / 40 20 10 10
DELL CITY 64 91 64 95 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 65 96 67 98 / 50 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 62 86 66 89 / 40 30 20 10
FABENS 66 94 68 97 / 50 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 65 91 66 93 / 30 20 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 93 71 95 / 40 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 92 62 94 / 20 20 20 10
HATCH 61 95 62 97 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 66 93 67 95 / 30 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 63 91 65 93 / 30 20 10 10
MAYHILL 51 78 54 82 / 20 60 20 50
MESCALERO 51 79 54 82 / 20 60 20 50
TIMBERON 48 77 50 80 / 20 50 20 40
WINSTON 51 85 52 85 / 10 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 59 91 60 93 / 20 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 59 92 60 94 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 53 88 55 88 / 20 20 20 30
HURLEY 58 89 58 90 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 58 94 59 93 / 10 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 56 91 58 88 / 10 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 60 88 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
ANIMAS 63 93 63 90 / 20 10 10 30
HACHITA 61 91 62 91 / 20 10 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 62 90 / 20 20 20 40
CLOVERDALE 61 87 61 84 / 20 20 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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