188
FXUS64 KEPZ 302038
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
- OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PUSH INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING,
BRINGING BLOWING DUST, AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE OBS SHOW UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER-50S COMMON OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. DESPITE
THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ANEMIC
EVEN OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS
SHOW WE'RE STILL CAPPED, WITH A CIN AROUND 75 J/KG AT ELP. THE
THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROBABLY ISN'T MUCH HELP EITHER.
BUT, THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SHOULD WE BREAK THE
CAP WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THAT FORCING COULD COME THIS
EVENING IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOW FROM DEEPER CONVECTION IN NE
CHIHUAHUA.
THE TIMING IS TRICKY. THE MOST RECENT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED CONVECTION IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER, BUT EARLIER HRRR RUNS, PLUS THOSE FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE
ARE MORE KEYED IN ON THE CONVECTION IN NE CHIHUAHUA (BUT WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES), AND SUGGEST OUTFLOW WILL SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ON INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE EL
PASO AREA, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO HOME.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE OUTFLOW, BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY TO BE
CARRIED INTO THE AREA REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEARER VICINITY. THE WINDOW FOR THIS OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6 PM TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. PROMISING NEWS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, NOT-SO-GREAT FOR
THE MANY LOCAL SCHOOL COMMENCEMENT ACTIVITIES HAPPENING THIS
EVENING IN EP.
WITH WEAK FORCING, MID-LEVEL WARMING, AND UPSTREAM INTERRUPTIONS
IN OUR FETCH OFF THE GULF, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH LOOK TO HAVE
DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MORE ACTIVE, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, LOCALIZED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH BURN SCARS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN LURKING OFF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, CARRYING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT, INCLUDING REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN. HOWEVER, MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PLAYED OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME SCANT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
DIURNAL DRYLINE SLOSHING COULD BRING SOME HIGHER HUMIDITY UP TO
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
0.6-0.8" WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. ALOFT,
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN A
REGION OF LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW. WIND SHEAR IS QUITE LACKING, WITH
ONLY SUBTLE BACKING FLOW IN MID-LEVELS. MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
WITHIN 500-300MB LAYER, TO BE REALIZED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES THIS AFTERNOON CREATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE.
WEAKLY FORCED, OUTFLOW-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
SAN ANDRES, AND BLACK RANGE PEAKS CURRENTLY FIRING RIGHT NOW.
LOWLAND COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW FORCING LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL SHOWS NO LOWLAND CUMULUS FIELD AS OF 1 PM, FURTHER
CONFIRMING A LATE START TO STORM CHANCES TONIGHT. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT
OF CHIHUAHUA BETWEEN 6-8 PM. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER LIFTING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. BEST CHANCE FOR EL PASO/LAS CRUCES MAY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET
WITH OUTFLOW-INDUCED STORMS BETWEEN 8-10 PM. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BLOWING DUST AND HABOOBS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE.
EXPECT LOWLAND STORM COVERAGE AROUND 15-25% THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL. STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT WITH
THE THREAT ENDING FOR ALL LOCAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATER IN THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ABOUT 30-40
PERCENT AT ELP, WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR OUTFLOW WINDS COMING FROM
THE SOUTH BRINGING IN SOME DUST AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT LRU AND DMN, MAINLY AFTER
00Z, WITH SIMILAR OUTFLOW/DUST CONCERNS.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF ELP.
MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY 06Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OTERO MESA AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AS
OUTFLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LIGHTER RAIN
CHANCES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE NORTHERN AREAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
OTHERWISE QUIETER CONDITIONS, LIGHTER WINDS, AND A WARMING TREND
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 95 72 98 / 40 20 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 61 88 62 91 / 40 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 62 92 64 94 / 30 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 62 91 65 95 / 20 30 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 49 70 / 20 60 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 93 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 58 87 59 87 / 10 20 20 20
DEMING 64 95 64 95 / 30 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 62 93 62 91 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 92 71 95 / 40 20 10 10
DELL CITY 64 91 64 95 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 65 96 67 98 / 50 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 62 86 66 89 / 40 30 20 10
FABENS 66 94 68 97 / 50 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 65 91 66 93 / 30 20 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 93 71 95 / 40 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 92 62 94 / 20 20 20 10
HATCH 61 95 62 97 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 66 93 67 95 / 30 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 63 91 65 93 / 30 20 10 10
MAYHILL 51 78 54 82 / 20 60 20 50
MESCALERO 51 79 53 82 / 20 60 20 50
TIMBERON 48 77 50 80 / 20 50 20 40
WINSTON 51 85 52 85 / 10 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 59 91 60 93 / 20 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 59 92 60 94 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 48 88 50 88 / 20 20 20 30
HURLEY 58 89 58 90 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 58 94 59 93 / 10 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 52 91 50 88 / 10 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 60 88 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
ANIMAS 63 93 63 90 / 20 10 10 30
HACHITA 61 91 62 91 / 20 10 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 62 90 / 20 20 20 40
CLOVERDALE 61 87 61 84 / 20 20 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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