180
FXUS64 KEPZ 310530
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1130 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
- OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PUSH INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING,
BRINGING BLOWING DUST, AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE OBS SHOW UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER-50S COMMON OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. DESPITE
THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ANEMIC
EVEN OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS
SHOW WE'RE STILL CAPPED, WITH A CIN AROUND 75 J/KG AT ELP. THE
THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROBABLY ISN'T MUCH HELP EITHER.
BUT, THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SHOULD WE BREAK THE
CAP WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THAT FORCING COULD COME THIS
EVENING IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOW FROM DEEPER CONVECTION IN NE
CHIHUAHUA.
THE TIMING IS TRICKY. THE MOST RECENT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED CONVECTION IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER, BUT EARLIER HRRR RUNS, PLUS THOSE FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE
ARE MORE KEYED IN ON THE CONVECTION IN NE CHIHUAHUA (BUT WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES), AND SUGGEST OUTFLOW WILL SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ON INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE EL
PASO AREA, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO HOME.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE OUTFLOW, BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY TO BE
CARRIED INTO THE AREA REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEARER VICINITY. THE WINDOW FOR THIS OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION INITIATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6 PM TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. PROMISING NEWS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, NOT-SO-GREAT FOR
THE MANY LOCAL SCHOOL COMMENCEMENT ACTIVITIES HAPPENING THIS
EVENING IN EP.
WITH WEAK FORCING, MID-LEVEL WARMING, AND UPSTREAM INTERRUPTIONS
IN OUR FETCH OFF THE GULF, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH LOOK TO HAVE
DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LOWLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MORE ACTIVE, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, LOCALIZED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH BURN SCARS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN LURKING OFF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, CARRYING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT, INCLUDING REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN. HOWEVER, MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PLAYED OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME SCANT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
DIURNAL DRYLINE SLOSHING COULD BRING SOME HIGHER HUMIDITY UP TO
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ONLY A
SLIM CHANCE OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THUS VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, SO
TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE 5-15KT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW,
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY EAST. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MAKE FOR CU DEVELOPMENT AFT 18Z, MAINLY OVER AREA HIGH
TERRAIN. AFT 19-20Z ISOL/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT, GENERALLY OVER
AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR RA/TS OVER ANY
TERMINAL WILL BE QUITE LOW, BUT STILL POSSIBLE, AND WILL BE HANDLED
IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUEANCE AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL FAVOR SE THROUGH
SSW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OTERO MESA AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AS
OUTFLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH LIGHTER RAIN
CHANCES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE NORTHERN AREAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
OTHERWISE QUIETER CONDITIONS, LIGHTER WINDS, AND A WARMING TREND
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 95 72 98 / 40 20 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 61 88 62 91 / 40 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 62 92 64 94 / 30 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 62 91 65 95 / 20 30 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 49 70 / 20 60 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 93 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 58 87 59 87 / 10 20 20 20
DEMING 64 95 64 95 / 30 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 62 93 62 91 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 92 71 95 / 40 20 10 10
DELL CITY 64 91 64 95 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 65 96 67 98 / 50 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 62 86 66 89 / 40 30 20 10
FABENS 66 94 68 97 / 50 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 65 91 66 93 / 30 20 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 93 71 95 / 40 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 61 92 62 94 / 20 20 20 10
HATCH 61 95 62 97 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 66 93 67 95 / 30 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 63 91 65 93 / 30 20 10 10
MAYHILL 51 78 54 82 / 20 60 20 50
MESCALERO 51 79 53 82 / 20 60 20 50
TIMBERON 48 77 50 80 / 20 50 20 40
WINSTON 51 85 52 85 / 10 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 59 91 60 93 / 20 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 59 92 60 94 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 48 88 50 88 / 20 20 20 30
HURLEY 58 89 58 90 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 58 94 59 93 / 10 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 52 91 50 88 / 10 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 60 88 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
ANIMAS 63 93 63 90 / 20 10 10 30
HACHITA 61 91 62 91 / 20 10 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 62 90 / 20 20 20 40
CLOVERDALE 61 87 61 84 / 20 20 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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