954
FXUS64 KEPZ 311137
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
537 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN WE TRANSITION TO A MORE HOT
AND DRY LIKE PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK,
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR TODAY, BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY SOUTHERN NM
AND WEST TX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING AND NOT AS RICH OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING
TRENDING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WARMING/DRYING LAYER AT ABOUT 500MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THAT SAID, AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE SACRAMENTO AND GILA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
OVER THE LOWLANDS COULD INDUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO
DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. HENCE THE REDUCTION IN POP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND FOCUSING OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RGV.
MUCH OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH THE FOCUS IN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SWITCHING TO AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER AZ/NV/CA VICINITY WILL BEGIN TO
OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST. AS IT DOES SO,
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS NM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY INFILTRATES
THE REGION.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING WITH IT
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE
QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH BEGINS TO FORM AND ANCHOR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL MEAN HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE BORDERLAND REGION
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 100 DEGREES LATE NEXT
WEEK,
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS REDUCTIONS ONGOING
AT KTCS/KDMN/KLRU DUE TO HZ FROM OVERNIGHT BLDU, HZ SHOULD
DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT AT 10-15 KFT
AND SCT-BKN AT 20-25 KFT, SCT-BKN 10-15 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CU DEVELOPMENT. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 7-12 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MAKE FOR CU DEVELOPMENT AFT 18Z, MAINLY OVER AREA HIGH
TERRAIN. AFT 19-20Z ISOL/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT, GENERALLY OVER
AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR RA/TS OVER ANY
TERMINAL WILL BE QUITE LOW, BUT STILL POSSIBLE, AND WILL BE HANDLED
IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS
ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL VARY DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RGV BETWEEN 13-23
PERCENT AND AREAS EAST BETWEEN 17-37 PERCENT ON SATURDAY, WITH
SIMILAR RH VALUES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT EACH MORNING. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY EACH AFTER AT 5-15 MPH, WITH MORE TERRAIN AND DRAINAGE
INFLUENCE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS HEADING MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 72 97 72 / 20 20 10 40
SIERRA BLANCA 87 62 91 65 / 20 20 10 30
LAS CRUCES 91 64 93 65 / 10 20 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 91 64 95 64 / 30 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 68 49 71 49 / 40 10 40 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 93 66 94 66 / 10 10 20 50
SILVER CITY 86 59 87 57 / 10 10 30 60
DEMING 94 64 95 65 / 10 10 20 50
LORDSBURG 93 62 92 61 / 10 10 20 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 72 95 71 / 20 20 10 40
DELL CITY 91 63 95 67 / 30 20 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 95 67 98 69 / 20 20 10 30
LOMA LINDA 86 65 89 65 / 20 20 10 40
FABENS 94 67 97 70 / 20 20 10 40
SANTA TERESA 91 66 94 67 / 20 20 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 93 72 95 71 / 20 20 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 92 63 95 63 / 20 20 10 40
HATCH 95 63 97 65 / 10 10 20 40
COLUMBUS 93 68 95 68 / 10 10 20 50
OROGRANDE 91 65 93 67 / 20 20 10 40
MAYHILL 78 54 82 54 / 50 10 30 30
MESCALERO 79 54 82 53 / 40 10 30 30
TIMBERON 77 50 80 51 / 40 10 20 40
WINSTON 85 52 86 51 / 20 10 30 60
HILLSBORO 91 61 93 59 / 10 10 20 50
SPACEPORT 92 61 94 61 / 10 10 10 50
LAKE ROBERTS 88 54 88 53 / 20 10 30 50
HURLEY 89 58 89 57 / 10 10 20 50
CLIFF 93 59 93 58 / 10 10 20 50
MULE CREEK 90 58 89 57 / 10 10 20 60
FAYWOOD 88 61 89 60 / 10 10 20 50
ANIMAS 93 64 91 62 / 10 10 20 60
HACHITA 91 62 91 62 / 10 10 30 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 62 90 61 / 20 20 50 60
CLOVERDALE 87 62 85 59 / 20 20 40 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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