829
FXUS64 KEPZ 312045
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY BEHAVING ITSELF TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY'S
CRUSHING DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE LOWLANDS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY WEAK, BUT WITH GOOD AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND JUST ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE'S JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE OTERO MESA OR DOWN IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH FAIRLY INHIBITED CONVECTION,
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SACS/GILA.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW STILL ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA WILL FINALLY SET SAIL TOMORROW, CARRYING THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF T.S. ALVIN UP INTO THE SIERRA MADRES. WITH THIS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO PARTS OF THE NM BOOTHEEL BEFORE SUNSET.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TREK INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TOMORROW EVENING,
AND OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF WAS ALREADY INTERRUPTED
TODAY, AND WE'LL SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW. SO, WE'LL HAVE WORKED-OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AN
INFLUX OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED, MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. POPS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT QPF IS QUITE LOW.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY, WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY RAMPING UP WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. WE'LL BE
FLIRTING WITH THE 100-DEGREE MARK AT ELP BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPRAWLS OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH
TEXAS.
DRYLINE SLOSHING WILL TRY TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH VERY
LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES AS DRIER AIR MIXES BACK DOWN EACH
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE LATE IN
THE WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK CAPABLE OF
CAUSING ANY DUST PROBLEMS, AND SHOULD CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO
PLATEAU FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SOME WAYWARD SMOKE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME LEFTOVER DUST, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TCS IS THE LAST HOLDOUT WITH 5SM
VISIBILITY AND VERTICAL VIS OF 1900 FEET (BEING REPORTED AS
OVC019). EXPECT THIS TO SCOUR OUT BY 20Z.
CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA
REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY, THOUGH A FEW STRAY CELLS
COULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF WEST TEXAS, BUT FAR ENOUGH EAST OF ELP
TO PREVENT ANY IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z AREA-WIDE, WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO A BROADER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EVEN AS WE DRY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GRAZE
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, JUST AS RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 71 97 72 / 10 10 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 87 62 90 65 / 20 20 20 40
LAS CRUCES 91 64 93 65 / 10 10 10 50
ALAMOGORDO 91 65 95 63 / 10 10 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 68 50 70 48 / 50 10 50 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 93 66 95 66 / 10 10 20 60
SILVER CITY 86 59 87 56 / 10 10 20 60
DEMING 94 65 95 65 / 0 10 20 60
LORDSBURG 93 64 91 60 / 0 10 10 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 71 94 71 / 10 10 10 60
DELL CITY 91 64 95 68 / 10 20 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 95 66 97 70 / 20 20 20 50
LOMA LINDA 86 66 88 65 / 20 20 10 50
FABENS 94 67 96 70 / 10 10 10 60
SANTA TERESA 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 93 71 95 71 / 10 10 10 50
JORNADA RANGE 92 63 94 63 / 10 10 10 50
HATCH 95 64 97 66 / 10 10 10 50
COLUMBUS 93 68 95 68 / 0 10 10 60
OROGRANDE 91 65 93 66 / 20 20 10 50
MAYHILL 78 54 82 54 / 70 20 50 40
MESCALERO 79 53 82 53 / 50 10 40 40
TIMBERON 77 51 80 50 / 50 20 50 40
WINSTON 85 53 86 52 / 20 20 20 60
HILLSBORO 91 61 92 60 / 10 10 20 60
SPACEPORT 92 61 94 60 / 10 10 10 50
LAKE ROBERTS 88 50 87 50 / 10 10 20 60
HURLEY 89 58 89 57 / 10 10 20 60
CLIFF 93 59 93 58 / 10 10 20 50
MULE CREEK 90 53 88 52 / 10 10 20 60
FAYWOOD 88 61 89 60 / 10 10 20 60
ANIMAS 93 64 90 61 / 0 10 20 70
HACHITA 91 63 90 61 / 0 10 20 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 63 88 61 / 10 10 40 70
CLOVERDALE 87 61 83 60 / 10 20 30 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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