945
FXUS64 KEPZ 011133
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING ISOLATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY.
- STRETCH OF HEAT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY OVER ARIZONA AND DOWN THE BAJA
AND FAR WESTERN MEXICO. STRONG DRY SLOTTING REMAINS OVER THE CWA.
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS DRIFTING UP TO THE CWA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING TO
FILL IN THE LOWLANDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARD THIS EVENING.
MODEST CAPE VALUES AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST STORMS NOT
APPROACHING SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH PWS APPROACHING 1.00 OR GREATER
THIS EVENING SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH STORMS/CLOUDS LASTING LATE INTO TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING,
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND DECENT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST MONDAY STORMS COULD APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE.
BUT AGAIN MORNING CLOUDINESS V.S. SUN/HEATING BECOMES THE CRITICAL
FACTOR. THIS SAME BATTLE WILL ALSO EFFECT HIGH TEMPS WITH UP TO 10
DEG VARIANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF AREA BUT NEW LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY AND
OPENS INTO TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THUS CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRYING CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
HEATING UP. BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL APPROACH 100 DEG ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
PAST 100. FOR NOW, HEWED TO THE NBM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAT/SUN, BUT
LOOKING AT NBM 50TH PERCENTILE NUMBERS, HIGHS FOR THE EL PASO
METRO AREA AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
(105 DEG) LEVELS. STILL A BIT EARLY BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED OVC050CB -TSRA.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DEVELOPING AFTER 23Z...ISOLATED BKN060CB -TSRA OVER THE
SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING WILL RUN SOUTHWEST 15-20G30
KNOTS. MOST THUNDERSTORMS OVER BY 06Z, BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW TODAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND SCATTERED/SHOWERS CONTINUE. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/ HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IS OF SOME CONCERN FOR BURN SCAR AREAS AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DEFINITE DRYING TREND BACK TO HOT
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH FIRE CONDITIONS
BECOMING ELEVATED AGAIN. FORTUNATELY NO SIGNIFICANT NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 15-25% TODAY AND MONDAY, DECREASING TO 10-18%
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% TODAY, 35-50% MONDAY, AND
THEN DECREASING 15-30% TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT EXCEPT TUESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY GOOD RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 97 71 89 69 / 10 50 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 91 62 86 61 / 20 40 40 10
LAS CRUCES 94 64 86 63 / 10 50 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 96 65 85 64 / 10 40 50 10
CLOUDCROFT 72 50 64 47 / 30 40 70 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 96 66 85 64 / 10 60 60 0
SILVER CITY 86 56 77 55 / 30 60 60 0
DEMING 96 65 87 64 / 20 60 50 0
LORDSBURG 92 64 83 63 / 30 60 60 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 94 71 86 70 / 10 60 40 0
DELL CITY 95 64 88 62 / 10 30 50 0
FORT HANCOCK 97 66 92 64 / 20 50 40 10
LOMA LINDA 89 66 81 65 / 10 50 40 0
FABENS 96 67 89 65 / 10 60 40 10
SANTA TERESA 95 66 86 65 / 10 60 50 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 96 71 86 70 / 10 50 60 10
JORNADA RANGE 95 63 85 62 / 10 50 60 10
HATCH 98 64 88 63 / 10 50 60 0
COLUMBUS 96 68 88 65 / 20 60 40 0
OROGRANDE 94 65 84 64 / 10 50 40 10
MAYHILL 84 54 78 52 / 30 40 80 10
MESCALERO 84 53 75 51 / 20 40 80 10
TIMBERON 82 51 72 49 / 30 40 50 10
WINSTON 88 53 77 52 / 20 60 80 0
HILLSBORO 93 61 84 60 / 20 60 60 0
SPACEPORT 95 61 86 60 / 10 50 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 89 52 77 51 / 30 60 70 0
HURLEY 90 58 81 57 / 20 60 60 0
CLIFF 94 57 83 56 / 30 50 60 0
MULE CREEK 89 53 78 52 / 30 60 60 0
FAYWOOD 90 61 80 60 / 10 60 50 0
ANIMAS 91 64 84 63 / 30 70 60 0
HACHITA 91 63 84 62 / 20 60 60 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 89 63 84 62 / 50 70 60 10
CLOVERDALE 84 61 78 60 / 30 70 70 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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