544
FXUS64 KEPZ 012321
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WIDER AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH.
LOWER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS WILL GET MISSED.
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT EL PASO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESSED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE DOWN A TICK FROM WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY THANKS IN PART TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, OUR UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST HAS
BEGUN DRIFTING TOWARDS SHORE, AND WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY DAWN TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
A SLUG OF MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, BOOSTING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.00 TO
1.20 INCHES BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE HRRR WAS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE BRINGING WEAKENING PRECIP
INTO THE LOWLANDS OF SW NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING, AS CONVECTION AND
OUTFLOW SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRA MADRES. HOWEVER, BOTH THE
12Z AND 18Z RUNS HAVE PROVEN TO BE OVERZEALOUS COMPARED TO REALITY
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE BOOTHEEL COULD
SEE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET. AFTERWARDS, KEPT POPS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN FAR SW NM, AND JUST
10-20 PERCENT AROUND EL PASO.
WE'LL HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP STARTING AROUND
DAWN, JUST AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE, WITH A SEMI-COHERENT LINE OR BAND
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ARCING INTO SW NEW MEXICO BY 6 AM, AND SPREADING
EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROLLS THROUGH. WEAK
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, AND A NOSE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IT'LL BE IN THIS AREA
WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WE'LL NEED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO BUILD UP SOME
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER.
BOTTOM LINE -- THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE WE'VE HAD FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN SOME TIME, BUT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
NOT GREAT. THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH
RANGE, INCLUDING LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO, AND A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
WILL GET MISSED ENTIRELY.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW LOOKS TO STAY TO OUT WEST UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SCANT PRECIP CHANCES FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE DELAY WILL ALLOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH FROM THE EAST, BUT SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY, SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXPANDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE THE 100
DEGREE MARK, AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 105 IN EL PASO TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THAT THESE
COULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT A LITTLE AND TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT, BUT WE'D ONLY BE TALKING ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS, MAINLY TO MVFR. AT
2320Z, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WERE UNDERWAY MAINLY WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THUS, EXPECT ON-AND-OFF
SHRA/TSRA AT ALL SITES, BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AND +RA WITH VIS DOWN TO 4 OR 5 SM.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT S TO SW'LY WINDS (210-250) WITH SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE
WITH BASES DOWN TO 070, LOWER WITHIN IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY STAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CARRY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BROADER REGION. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE A CONCERN FOR
BURN SCARS, BUT OTHERWISE A BENEFICIAL WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH FOR
MOST LOWLAND AREAS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH
TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY RAMPING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APART
FROM SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 86 69 94 / 20 50 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 86 62 88 / 20 40 10 0
LAS CRUCES 66 81 61 89 / 30 70 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 64 82 58 89 / 10 50 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 61 44 67 / 20 80 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 83 63 89 / 20 70 0 10
SILVER CITY 56 74 53 81 / 50 50 10 10
DEMING 64 84 61 91 / 40 60 0 10
LORDSBURG 60 82 57 87 / 50 60 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 84 68 90 / 20 50 10 0
DELL CITY 68 89 64 93 / 10 30 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 91 66 96 / 20 40 10 0
LOMA LINDA 66 80 61 84 / 20 50 10 0
FABENS 69 88 66 93 / 20 40 10 0
SANTA TERESA 67 82 63 89 / 20 50 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 83 67 90 / 20 70 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 63 82 58 89 / 20 60 10 10
HATCH 65 84 60 91 / 30 60 0 10
COLUMBUS 67 84 64 91 / 40 70 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 82 61 88 / 10 50 10 0
MAYHILL 55 74 50 79 / 10 50 20 10
MESCALERO 54 71 48 78 / 10 60 10 10
TIMBERON 50 72 45 76 / 20 50 10 10
WINSTON 52 74 49 80 / 30 80 0 20
HILLSBORO 60 81 56 88 / 30 70 0 10
SPACEPORT 61 81 56 88 / 20 60 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 53 73 45 83 / 60 60 10 20
HURLEY 56 78 54 85 / 40 50 0 10
CLIFF 57 80 53 88 / 50 50 0 10
MULE CREEK 54 76 49 83 / 40 50 0 10
FAYWOOD 60 77 56 84 / 30 70 0 10
ANIMAS 60 82 58 88 / 60 60 10 10
HACHITA 60 81 58 87 / 50 70 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 79 58 87 / 50 80 10 10
CLOVERDALE 59 74 57 82 / 60 70 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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