271
FXUS64 KEPZ 172048
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
248 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RETREAT ON TUESDAY, THOUGH
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EL
PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY TUESDAY, THEN RETREATING TO JUST THE
LOWER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 105 DEGREES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN EARLY
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TRIES TO SET UP. AREAS NEAR AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED TO OUR WEST, MORE
SPECIFICALLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHICH WILL THEN MIGRATE OVER
THE BORDERLAND BY THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE JUST A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES TOMORROW DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHES IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW CONDITIONS WILL STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME. MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH DRY AND
CALM CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE BORDERLANDS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. A POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR EL PASO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EL PASO METRO. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE POP UP SHOWERS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTS. GOING INTO LATE THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO
AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY ACROSS
THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FUNNELING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE CWA EARLIER THE
WEEK BEFORE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE MIDWEST, DRAWING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAUGHT IN
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ELEVATING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. PERHAPS SOME FEW100 NEAR KTCS AND SOME HAZY SKIES DUE TO
THE WILDFIRES OVER THE GILA REGION. BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT. WINDS STAY
SOMEWHAT BREEZY THROUGH 06Z BUT THEN WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA BRINGING WARM
AND VERY DRY AIR LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MIN RHS STAY
AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO STAY
10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN BEHIND IT. THE
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT PAST THE SACRAMENTO MTNS, BUT MAX RH VALUES
IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BE AROUND 40-50%, BUT BETTER OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST
WILL SEE MAX RHS OF 40-80%. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 67 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 101 67 99 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 77 51 76 / 0 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 66 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 101 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 105 73 104 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 66 103 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 85 55 86 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 54 88 56 88 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 54 85 54 85 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 56 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 66 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 64 100 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 97 60 96 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 62 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 102 64 103 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 101 65 103 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 100 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 95 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER/GONZALEZ
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