760
FXUS64 KEPZ 180427
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1027 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 105, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING GREATLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SAGGED SOUTHWEST OF US TODAY AFTER A
SHORTWAVE CROSSED THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INCREASED WINDS A BIT
LOCALLY. PEAK GUSTS WERE AROUND 40 MPH TODAY AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS REMAIN LOW-END BREEZY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SMOKE IMPACTS DUE TO ONGOING WILDFIRES. HRRR SHOWS SMOKE FROM THE
TROUT FIRE RESTING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER LAS CRUCES AND
EL PASO. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE HAZY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO SMOKE, AND WILL LOWER AIR QUALITY A BIT.
TO OUR NORTHEAST, MOISTURE BOUNDARY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REACH OTERO/SIERRA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND SPILL DOWN THE TULAROSA/RIO GRANDE BASINS, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING SOME MORNING RELIEF TO FIRES IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS, BUT LIKELY NOT REACH THE TROUT FIRE IN WESTERN
NM.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORE HOT AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
101 TO 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN SPACIAL
COVERAGE, NOW JUST ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH OF EL
PASO ON WEDNESDAY AND NOTHING FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ERODE
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD
TO VERY FEW EVENING STORMS (0-5% COVERAGE EAST OF EL PASO).
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST INTO THE AREA. EAST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED (10-15% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SACRAMENTO RANGE AND AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
..FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MAKES AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEPER
UPPER LOW MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE EL PASO
AREA RESTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A MORE
SUSTAINED FETCH OF SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE GAINS OUT OF
MEXICO. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE TRANSITION DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WARM (LOWLAND HIGHS 98-102 DEGREES) AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN
ZONES. EACH DAY GOING FORWARD, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM
CHANCES.
..NEXT WEEK
STILL ON TRACK FOR A RAMPING UP OF RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE
2025 MONSOON SEASON COMES INTO FULL SWING. FAVORABLE FETCH OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK, WITH DECENT COVERAGE EVEN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL BOTH FAVOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, LEAVING WESTERN NEW MEXICO A BIT
DRIER. CPC OUTLOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK IS
ALIGNED WITH THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER
NEXT, AS EL PASO FINALLY DIPS BELOW TRIPLE-DIGITS. SOME AREAS MAY
EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILDFIRES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZY ACROSS S NM
AND FAR W TX OVERNIGHT. SURFACE VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND
EAST SLOPES 270-300 AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
FROPA REACHING LOCAL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO THE NW 020-050 AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A PREVAILING ENE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
WIND SHIFT COMING TO LNF OVERNIGHT, WITH ONGOING WEST WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MOISTURE
INTRUSION. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER AREA WIDE WITH VERY
GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION. MOISTURE REACHING AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO
GRANDE, SO GNF WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY AND WARM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MIN RH 4-8%. RFTI SHOWS CONDITIONS NEAR
CRITICAL OVER WESTERN NM TOMORROW AND LOWER FIRE DANGER EASTWARD
DUE TO HIGHER RH. SECONDARY EAST PUSH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SACRAMENTO WEST
SLOPES.
PREVAILING SOUTH FLOW REST OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED (10-20%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER LNF.
COOLER AND WETTER TREND EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BEGIN NEXT WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL FIRE
HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH WINDS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASING EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 67 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 68 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 101 68 98 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 78 52 75 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 66 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 104 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 66 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 66 103 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 103 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 100 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 56 85 55 86 / 0 10 10 20
MESCALERO 55 89 57 87 / 0 10 0 20
TIMBERON 56 86 55 84 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 56 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 66 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 64 100 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 97 58 96 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 63 98 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 102 64 102 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 97 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 100 65 104 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 100 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 100 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 95 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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