312
FXUS64 KEPZ 181121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 105, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING GREATLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SAGGED SOUTHWEST OF US TODAY AFTER A
SHORTWAVE CROSSED THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INCREASED WINDS A BIT
LOCALLY. PEAK GUSTS WERE AROUND 40 MPH TODAY AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS REMAIN LOW-END BREEZY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SMOKE IMPACTS DUE TO ONGOING WILDFIRES. HRRR SHOWS SMOKE FROM THE
TROUT FIRE RESTING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER LAS CRUCES AND
EL PASO. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE HAZY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO SMOKE, AND WILL LOWER AIR QUALITY A BIT.
TO OUR NORTHEAST, MOISTURE BOUNDARY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REACH OTERO/SIERRA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND SPILL DOWN THE TULAROSA/RIO GRANDE BASINS, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING SOME MORNING RELIEF TO FIRES IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS, BUT LIKELY NOT REACH THE TROUT FIRE IN WESTERN
NM.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORE HOT AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
101 TO 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN SPACIAL
COVERAGE, NOW JUST ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH OF EL
PASO ON WEDNESDAY AND NOTHING FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ERODE
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD
TO VERY FEW EVENING STORMS (0-5% COVERAGE EAST OF EL PASO).
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST INTO THE AREA. EAST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED (10-15% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SACRAMENTO RANGE AND AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
..FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MAKES AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEPER
UPPER LOW MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE EL PASO
AREA RESTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A MORE
SUSTAINED FETCH OF SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE GAINS OUT OF
MEXICO. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE TRANSITION DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WARM (LOWLAND HIGHS 98-102 DEGREES) AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN
ZONES. EACH DAY GOING FORWARD, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM
CHANCES.
..NEXT WEEK
STILL ON TRACK FOR A RAMPING UP OF RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE
2025 MONSOON SEASON COMES INTO FULL SWING. FAVORABLE FETCH OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK, WITH DECENT COVERAGE EVEN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL BOTH FAVOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, LEAVING WESTERN NEW MEXICO A BIT
DRIER. CPC OUTLOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK IS
ALIGNED WITH THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER
NEXT, AS EL PASO FINALLY DIPS BELOW TRIPLE-DIGITS. SOME AREAS MAY
EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILDFIRES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZY ACROSS S NM
AND FAR W TX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE N/NW, BECOMING NE/E DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THATS BEEN
DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL SITUATE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY, AND A RESULT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 1-3 DEGREES
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
TO 1-2 DEGREES WARMER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. EARLY
MORNING MOISTURE INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL INCREASE MIN
RH VALUES FOR THE SACRAMENTO MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25%. AREAS WEST OF THE SACS/OTERO MESA/HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CRITICAL RH CATEGORY WITH MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
BELOW 10%. SURFACE TROUGHING THAT BROUGHT BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION YESTERDAY WILL RELAX, AS A RESULT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT 7-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SW WEST OF THE
RGV, EAST TO SE EAST OF THE RGV. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, HOT AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EASTERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BECOMING EASTERLY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL, BACK INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY, INCREASING 4-8 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY,
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BE 20-30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) OF
RAIN/STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MAKES AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEPER UPPER
LOW MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE EL PASO AREA
RESTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A MORE SUSTAINED
FETCH OF SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE GAINS OUT OF MEXICO.
RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE TRANSITION DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM (LOWLAND HIGHS 98-102 DEGREES) AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES. EACH
DAY GOING FORWARD, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 98 67 96 69 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 100 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 101 68 98 69 / 10 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 78 52 75 52 / 10 0 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 100 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 94 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 103 69 104 72 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 100 68 103 72 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 100 69 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 105 74 104 76 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 104 75 104 77 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 76 101 77 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 101 69 101 71 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 103 69 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 103 74 104 77 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 100 72 98 72 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 85 55 86 56 / 10 10 20 0
MESCALERO 89 57 87 57 / 10 0 20 0
TIMBERON 86 55 84 54 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 92 58 92 59 / 0 0 10 0
HILLSBORO 99 67 99 67 / 0 0 10 0
SPACEPORT 100 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 97 58 96 60 / 0 0 10 0
HURLEY 98 65 98 67 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 102 64 102 69 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 97 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 100 65 104 70 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 100 67 102 71 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 67 103 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 95 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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