137
FNUS74 KEPZ 182131
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR PINON DRAW...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FIRE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE NORTH. BY SUNSET THE TREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE ENDED. WE WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS. WE WILL SEE GOOD RH RECOVERIES OF
70 TO 80%. ON THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL STILL BE FROM THE EAST, BUT THERE
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 11 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (5800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........18 18 10 6 6 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............83 78 68 63 61 59
RH..............28 35 53 65 75 80
20 FT WIND......E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 16 16 16
MIX HGT (FT)....7600 7600 600 600 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 12 E 12 E 13 E 13 NE 11 NE 11
VRATE KT-FT/1K..68 68 7 7 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
JUNETEENTH
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (22400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(116900 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........9 9 10 12 12 15
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 20 20 20
TEMP............58 68 79 83 83 85
RH..............80 63 42 33 32 27
20 FT WIND......E 10 E 10 E 11 E 12 E 12 SE 12
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 20 21 21 21
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 9800 9800 10600 10600
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 10 NE 10 E 14 E 14 E 13 E 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..22 22 127 127 117 117
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (107500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(6300 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........14 9 6 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............83 72 62 59
RH..............30 44 62 75
20 FT WIND......SE 12G21 SE 9G17 SE 6G13 S 6G9
MIX HGT (FT)....8300 8300 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 15 SE 13 S 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..108 108 6 7
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
FORECASTER...BRICE
REQUESTED BY...CONNOR STAVES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516201.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/18/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV
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