142
FXUS64 KEPZ 190411
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 105, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY FAVORING THE AREA MOUNTAINS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A GOOD MONSOONAL TAP SETS UP.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US THE REALLY HOT WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND HAS DRIFTED OFF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT WILL NOW RETURN
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS BEFORE, BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GIVE MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EL PASO AND PARTS OF LUNA COUNTIES HAVE A 50%
CHANCE OR BETTER OF SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST, WHILE AT THE SURFACE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STILL CONTROL ENOUGH OF OUR WEATHER SO THAT THUNDERSTORMS,
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA MOUNTAINS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TO OUR WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO
WEATHER FEATURES WILL PULL DECENT MOISTURE UP OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. THUS, WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY MAY EVEN DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND IF ANYTHING,
STRENGTHEN AND WE WILL BE PULLING EVEN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DESPITE THE
ON GOING DROUGHT, FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT AND
ONGOING BURN SCARS, COULD START TO BECOME A POSSIBILITY NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS OF 18-20 MPH
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS DIRECTLY IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND WEAK SHEAR. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN UNLIMITED, WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO CRITICAL
MIN RHS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
TRY ONCE AGAIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS EASTERLY WITH SOME BREEZINESS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, CAN EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 10-20MPH WITH HIGHER WINDS
ON WEST FACING SLOPES. MOISTURE WILL FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING TONIGHT'S MAX RHS TO 40 TO 90 PERCENT EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF STORMS FAVORING THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND THEN SPREADING TO THE
LOWLANDS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE EACH DAY BUT
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH TO 50 MPH DIRECTLY
NEAR OUTFLOWS. WIND SPEEDS STAY TAME EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10-15MPH. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING POOR TO GOOD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 79 104 / 0 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 68 95 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 70 101 71 101 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 99 70 99 / 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 77 53 77 / 0 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 73 101 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 66 96 66 94 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 70 106 71 104 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 67 104 71 102 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 102 78 101 / 0 10 10 10
DELL CITY 70 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 105 76 103 / 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 94 / 0 10 10 0
FABENS 75 104 76 103 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 74 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 102 76 101 / 0 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 101 71 101 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 69 104 71 104 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 74 105 74 104 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 72 99 72 99 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 56 86 57 88 / 0 20 10 20
MESCALERO 57 88 58 88 / 0 20 10 10
TIMBERON 55 85 55 85 / 10 20 10 10
WINSTON 58 94 58 92 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 67 101 66 99 / 0 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 66 101 68 100 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 97 62 96 / 0 10 10 10
HURLEY 65 99 66 98 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 64 104 68 102 / 0 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 62 100 65 97 / 0 0 10 0
FAYWOOD 68 99 68 97 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 65 104 68 103 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 67 103 69 101 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 103 69 101 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 69 99 69 96 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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