425
FXUS64 KEPZ 191121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 105, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY FAVORING THE AREA MOUNTAINS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A GOOD MONSOONAL TAP SETS UP.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US THE REALLY HOT WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND HAS DRIFTED OFF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT WILL NOW RETURN
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS BEFORE, BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GIVE MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EL PASO AND PARTS OF LUNA COUNTIES HAVE A 50%
CHANCE OR BETTER OF SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST, WHILE AT THE SURFACE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STILL CONTROL ENOUGH OF OUR WEATHER SO THAT THUNDERSTORMS,
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA MOUNTAINS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TO OUR WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO
WEATHER FEATURES WILL PULL DECENT MOISTURE UP OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. THUS, WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY MAY EVEN DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND IF ANYTHING,
STRENGTHEN AND WE WILL BE PULLING EVEN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DESPITE THE
ON GOING DROUGHT, FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT AND
ONGOING BURN SCARS, COULD START TO BECOME A POSSIBILITY NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. FEW-SCT
CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH. WINDS LIGHT AT 5-10
KNOTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME 8-13 KNOTS OUT OF SE/S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 454 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REBUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL INCREASE 3-7 PERCENT FROM
WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AREAWIDE. THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS, OTERO MESA, AND HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL BE ABOVE 15
PERCENT FOR MIN RH VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
3-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MIXING WILL RESUME IN THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING ABOVE 10K
FEET AGL PROMOTING EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES. ADDED MOISTURE
AT 500MB WILL INDUCE WIDELY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. THAT BEING SAID, A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF
RAIN/STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF STORM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF ONGOING WILDFIRE INCIDENTS, GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO WORTH NOTING, FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE GILA SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND A MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT REVERSE WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. IF THE
TROUT FIRE CAN PRODUCE A SMOKE PLUME/COLUMN THAT CAN REACH ~3-4KM
AGL (CCL/CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL) THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN
ACCESS THAT MODEST AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PYRO-CU MAY DEVELOP. OTHER FACTORS AT PLAY THAT MAY INHIBIT THIS
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND MIXING,
ANY UPPER LEVEL INHIBITION THAT MAY INHIBIT GROWTH, AND ALSO HOW
HOT THE FIRE WILL BURN AND HOW MUCH SMOKE IT WILL PRODUCE. WITH
ALL THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW.
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH MAKES AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEPER UPPER
LOW MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AREA RESTING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A MORE
SUSTAINED FETCH OF SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE GAINS OUT OF
MEXICO. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE TRANSITION DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WARM (LOWLAND HIGHS 98-102 DEGREES) AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RGV.
THAT BEING SAID, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES. EACH DAY GOING FORWARD, WE CAN EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 79 104 78 / 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 97 68 95 69 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 101 71 101 70 / 0 10 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 99 70 99 72 / 10 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 77 53 77 56 / 20 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 73 101 71 / 0 10 0 10
SILVER CITY 96 66 94 64 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 106 71 104 69 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 104 71 102 67 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 99 71 100 71 / 10 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 105 76 103 76 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 95 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
FABENS 104 76 103 76 / 10 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 101 76 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 76 101 77 / 10 10 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 101 71 101 69 / 10 10 0 10
HATCH 104 71 104 68 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 105 74 104 75 / 0 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 99 72 99 73 / 10 10 0 10
MAYHILL 86 57 88 59 / 20 10 20 10
MESCALERO 88 58 88 61 / 20 10 10 10
TIMBERON 85 55 85 55 / 20 10 10 10
WINSTON 94 58 92 55 / 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 101 66 99 65 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 101 68 100 66 / 10 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 97 62 96 59 / 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 99 66 98 63 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 104 68 102 63 / 10 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 100 65 97 61 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 99 68 97 66 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 104 68 103 68 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 103 69 101 68 / 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 103 69 101 68 / 0 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 99 69 96 66 / 0 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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