579
FXUS64 KEPZ 191748
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1148 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 103, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AND ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A POTENT LOW EDGES INTO
THE PACNW. THE LOW'S TREK INLAND WILL HELP TO USHER THE KIDNEY BEAN-
SHAPED HIGH INTO EASTERN TX BY FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE
HEIGHTS TO BEGIN FALLING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE
LOWLAND DESERTS, WE WILL SEE A DEGREE OR TWO DECREASE NEARLY
AREAWIDE COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS. RECYCLED MOISTURE COULD GIVE
WAY TO A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE TDS AREN'T TOO INCREDIBLY LOW, THE TD DEPRESSION IS STILL WIDE
ENOUGH THAT STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS COULD RESULT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INLAND AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY,
ALLOWING PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO DROP FROM THE OPPRESSIVE 594DAM SEEN ON
THURSDAY TO A MORE REASONABLE 589DAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A SLUG OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SNAKE UP THE CHIHUAHUAN
DESERT AND INTO THE BORDERLAND. THESE TWO THINGS IN CONCERT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL FURTHER, ENDING THE REIGN OF TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS. THEY'LL STILL MAKE THEIR MARK, HOWEVER, BUT WILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED TO THE RGV AND DESERT VALLEYS. THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT ESPECIALLY THE
SACS. MEANWHILE, PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
DRY AIR WILL WORK TO INTRUDE WESTERN ZONES. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS A RESULT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AGAINST THE MOISTURE PLUME. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE, ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS TOUR OF THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY,
FORCING PRESSURE HEIGHTS EVEN LOWER. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AGAIN, WITH EXISTENCE OF THE CENTURY MARK
BECOMING INCREDIBLY LOCALIZED. THE MONSOON-LIKE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER, FAVORING EASTERN ZONES. PWATS RISE TO AN INCH AND GREATER
AMONGST MEAN FLOW THAT IS ONLY BRISK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING, SHOULD A SLOW-MOVING STORM GET THE SALT OR SEVEN SPRINGS
BURN AREAS IN ITS CROSSHAIRS. THANKFULLY, FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT SYSTEM MORPHS INTO AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH TUESDAY, PULLING MOISTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. YOU MIGHT BE ASKING, "IS THIS THE MONSOON?" IT'S
DEFINITELY MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION, WITH SIGNAL OF OUR FRIEND, THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH, ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF FURTHER TOWARDS
THE END OF GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE FORMALITY, ALL MONSOON-
RELATED HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE MENU THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY ELY TO
SLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH TYPICAL GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS.
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
AFTN, DIMINISHING AFT SUNSET. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LLWS TO WRN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS MAY
PERSIST LATER INTO THE EVENING, TAPERING OFF AFT 20/06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
STORMS FIRING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TRENDING
DRIER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING, AS WELL AS
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES. THIS IN CONCERT WITH EXTREME DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A HEALTHY TAP OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
INCREASE, BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOTIONS ON SUNDAY COULD TREND SLOWER,
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE SALT BURN SCAR AND THE SEVEN SPRINGS
FIRE. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 104 79 103 79 / 0 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 96 67 95 69 / 10 10 0 10
LAS CRUCES 101 71 101 70 / 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 98 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 76 53 77 55 / 20 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 73 101 71 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 95 66 94 63 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 105 71 103 69 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 103 71 102 66 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 78 101 78 / 0 10 10 20
DELL CITY 98 71 100 72 / 10 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 103 75 103 76 / 10 10 10 20
LOMA LINDA 94 69 95 71 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 103 75 103 76 / 0 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 101 75 100 74 / 0 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 76 101 76 / 0 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 101 70 100 68 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 103 70 103 67 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 104 74 103 74 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 98 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 85 56 86 59 / 20 10 20 10
MESCALERO 87 57 87 59 / 20 10 20 10
TIMBERON 85 54 85 55 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 93 59 92 56 / 10 0 10 0
HILLSBORO 100 66 99 65 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 100 67 100 65 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 93 58 / 0 0 10 10
HURLEY 99 66 97 63 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 103 67 100 62 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 98 64 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 97 67 97 66 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 103 68 102 67 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 102 69 101 67 / 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 69 99 69 / 0 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 98 69 96 66 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...99
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