988
FXUS64 KEPZ 200156
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
756 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 103, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AND ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A POTENT LOW EDGES INTO
THE PACNW. THE LOW'S TREK INLAND WILL HELP TO USHER THE KIDNEY BEAN-
SHAPED HIGH INTO EASTERN TX BY FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE
HEIGHTS TO BEGIN FALLING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE
LOWLAND DESERTS, WE WILL SEE A DEGREE OR TWO DECREASE NEARLY
AREAWIDE COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS. RECYCLED MOISTURE COULD GIVE
WAY TO A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE TDS AREN'T TOO INCREDIBLY LOW, THE TD DEPRESSION IS STILL WIDE
ENOUGH THAT STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS COULD RESULT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INLAND AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY,
ALLOWING PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO DROP FROM THE OPPRESSIVE 594DAM SEEN ON
THURSDAY TO A MORE REASONABLE 589DAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A SLUG OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SNAKE UP THE CHIHUAHUAN
DESERT AND INTO THE BORDERLAND. THESE TWO THINGS IN CONCERT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL FURTHER, ENDING THE REIGN OF TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS. THEY'LL STILL MAKE THEIR MARK, HOWEVER, BUT WILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED TO THE RGV AND DESERT VALLEYS. THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT ESPECIALLY THE
SACS. MEANWHILE, PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
DRY AIR WILL WORK TO INTRUDE WESTERN ZONES. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS A RESULT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AGAINST THE MOISTURE PLUME. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE, ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS TOUR OF THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY,
FORCING PRESSURE HEIGHTS EVEN LOWER. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AGAIN, WITH EXISTENCE OF THE CENTURY MARK
BECOMING INCREDIBLY LOCALIZED. THE MONSOON-LIKE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER, FAVORING EASTERN ZONES. PWATS RISE TO AN INCH AND GREATER
AMONGST MEAN FLOW THAT IS ONLY BRISK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING, SHOULD A SLOW-MOVING STORM GET THE SALT OR SEVEN SPRINGS
BURN AREAS IN ITS CROSSHAIRS. THANKFULLY, FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PARENT SYSTEM MORPHS INTO AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH TUESDAY, PULLING MOISTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. YOU MIGHT BE ASKING, "IS THIS THE MONSOON?" IT'S
DEFINITELY MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION, WITH SIGNAL OF OUR FRIEND, THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH, ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF FURTHER TOWARDS
THE END OF GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE FORMALITY, ALL MONSOON-
RELATED HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE MENU THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REACH ELP THIS EVENING,
AND INITIATE STEADY E-SE FLOW THAT'LL LAST THROUGH DAWN.
MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED OVER SW NEW
MEXICO BY TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
LLWS OVERNIGHT AT DMN AND TCS.
CONVECTION FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH A FEW ERRANT CELLS MAYBE DRIFTING INTO THE TULAROSA
BASIN, BUT NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES DIRECTLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
STORMS FIRING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TRENDING
DRIER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING, AS WELL AS
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES. THIS IN CONCERT WITH EXTREME DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A HEALTHY TAP OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
INCREASE, BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOTIONS ON SUNDAY COULD TREND SLOWER,
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE SALT BURN SCAR AND THE SEVEN SPRINGS
FIRE. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 103 79 101 / 10 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 69 95 / 10 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 71 101 70 98 / 10 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 55 76 / 10 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 71 98 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 66 94 63 89 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 71 103 69 98 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 71 102 66 96 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 101 78 99 / 10 10 20 10
DELL CITY 71 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 75 103 76 101 / 10 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 69 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
FABENS 75 103 76 101 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA TERESA 75 100 74 97 / 10 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 76 99 / 10 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 100 68 98 / 0 10 10 10
HATCH 70 103 67 99 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 74 103 74 99 / 0 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 71 99 72 97 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 56 86 59 86 / 10 20 10 20
MESCALERO 57 87 59 86 / 10 20 10 20
TIMBERON 54 85 55 84 / 10 10 10 20
WINSTON 59 92 56 90 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 66 99 65 96 / 0 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 67 100 65 98 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 93 58 89 / 0 10 10 10
HURLEY 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 67 100 62 96 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 97 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 97 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 102 67 96 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 101 67 96 / 10 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 69 95 / 10 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 69 96 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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