161
FXUS64 KEPZ 200517
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1117 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 103, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH STEADY SE WINDS. DRIPPINGS SPRINGS RAWS IS
GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS (AT 20 FEET), WHILE THE AUTO-POPULATED NBM
THINKS IT SHOULD BE 21 KNOTS (AT 33 FT). SIMILARLY, A STATION
NEAR FRANKLIN MTNS STATE PARK VISITOR CENTER IS GUSTING TO 25
KNOTS, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY MOUNTED EVEN BELOW 20 FEET. BOOSTED
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES AS
MOST MODELS, INCLUDING THOSE THAT FEED THE NBM, AND THE ANALYSIS
DATASETS THAT ATTEMPT TO VERIFY AND BIAS CORRECT IT, ALL STRUGGLE
WITH THESE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING, AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTING EASTWARD TOMORROW (FRIDAY),
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL ON THE WARMER SIDE, ABOUT -6 TO -7C
AT 500 MB, AND THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE AGAIN WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING IN THE AFTERNOON. SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED AGAIN. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW FROM THE
SIERRA MADRES COULD POP SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SW NEW
MEXICO, OVER THE LOWLANDS, WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EASTWARD AS
STEERING FLOW SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-DRIFTING RIDGE.
BROADLY-SPEAKING, THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SORT OF A TUG-OF-
WAR BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING DRY
SW FLOW INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND SUBTROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMING UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WITH SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AHEAD FOR THE TROUT FIRE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (BELOW
RED FLAG CONDITIONS, NOT AS BAD AS LAST TUESDAY).
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT ALSO SOME
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO THE LOWLANDS OF FAR SW NEW MEXICO ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SIERRA MADRES. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY TRY AND MODERATE THE DRYNESS OUT WEST, AND
THERE'S AN INCREASING CHANCE WE'LL POP AM ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
OVER THE GILA BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. EVENTUALLY, THE MOISTURE
WILL WIN OUT AND EXPAND WESTWARD AS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY, "SPREADING THE WEALTH" OF MONSOON PRECIP TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA BORDER BY TUESDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-S ORIENTED RIDGE LINES. GFS ENSEMBLE CHARTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT ELP. THE MEAN PEAKS ON
MONDAY WITH A PWAT OF 1.50 INCHES (IN JUNE!), THEN SLOWLY
DECLINES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAINS ABOVE 1.10 INCHES.
THE DOWNSIDE...WHILE WE ALL WANT RAIN, WE CAN'T REALLY GET IT
AROUND HERE WITHOUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER HAZARDS. THE RISK OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SEVEN SPRINGS FIRES IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE "WETTER" AND LESS SPOTTY STORM COVERAGE
FOLLOW. SIMILARLY, THE TROUT FIRE WILL HAVE A DAY OR TWO WITH
GUSTIER, DRIER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEFORE THE MOISTURE SETS
IN. THEN WE GET TO CONSIDER BURN SCAR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ANY
EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK INTO THE SW NEW MEXICO DESERTS
COULD KICK UP SOME DUST, AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A RISK EVEN
AWAY FROM BURN AREAS, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THE OTHER GOOD NEWS...I WENT A WHOLE AFD WITHOUT MENTIONING HIGH
HEAT (UNTIL NOW). TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH A LOT OF 80S EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. STEADY E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE, SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER SW NEW MEXICO BY TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
LEADING TO PERIODS OF LLWS OVERNIGHT AT DMN AND TCS.
CONVECTION FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH A FEW ERRANT CELLS MAYBE DRIFTING INTO THE TULAROSA
BASIN AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO SNEAK
UP INTO SW NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LOWER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
STORMS FIRING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TRENDING
DRIER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING, AS WELL AS
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES. THIS IN CONCERT WITH EXTREME DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A HEALTHY TAP OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
INCREASE, BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOTIONS ON SUNDAY COULD TREND SLOWER,
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE SALT BURN SCAR AND THE SEVEN SPRINGS
FIRE. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 103 78 102 / 10 10 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 69 95 / 20 20 20 40
LAS CRUCES 71 101 70 98 / 10 10 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 54 76 / 10 20 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 71 100 / 0 10 20 10
SILVER CITY 66 95 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 71 104 70 100 / 10 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 70 102 67 98 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 101 78 99 / 10 10 20 30
DELL CITY 70 100 72 100 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 75 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 40
LOMA LINDA 70 94 71 93 / 0 20 20 30
FABENS 75 103 75 100 / 10 10 20 30
SANTA TERESA 75 101 73 97 / 10 10 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 75 100 / 10 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 70 101 68 98 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH 70 103 68 100 / 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 74 103 74 100 / 10 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 72 99 72 98 / 0 10 10 20
MAYHILL 57 88 59 88 / 0 40 20 20
MESCALERO 57 88 59 87 / 10 20 10 20
TIMBERON 54 85 55 84 / 10 30 20 20
WINSTON 59 92 58 90 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 66 100 66 97 / 10 10 20 10
SPACEPORT 67 100 65 97 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 96 56 91 / 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 66 98 65 94 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 59 101 60 97 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 56 98 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 97 66 93 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 102 67 98 / 10 20 20 10
HACHITA 69 101 67 96 / 10 20 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 100 69 96 / 20 30 30 30
CLOVERDALE 69 95 65 90 / 10 20 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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