024
FXUS64 KEPZ 201137
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
537 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 103, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH STEADY SE WINDS. DRIPPINGS SPRINGS RAWS IS
GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS (AT 20 FEET), WHILE THE AUTO-POPULATED NBM
THINKS IT SHOULD BE 21 KNOTS (AT 33 FT). SIMILARLY, A STATION
NEAR FRANKLIN MTNS STATE PARK VISITOR CENTER IS GUSTING TO 25
KNOTS, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY MOUNTED EVEN BELOW 20 FEET. BOOSTED
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES AS
MOST MODELS, INCLUDING THOSE THAT FEED THE NBM, AND THE ANALYSIS
DATASETS THAT ATTEMPT TO VERIFY AND BIAS CORRECT IT, ALL STRUGGLE
WITH THESE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING, AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTING EASTWARD TOMORROW (FRIDAY),
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL ON THE WARMER SIDE, ABOUT -6 TO -7C
AT 500 MB, AND THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE AGAIN WITH
INSTABILITY LACKING IN THE AFTERNOON. SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED AGAIN. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW FROM THE
SIERRA MADRES COULD POP SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SW NEW
MEXICO, OVER THE LOWLANDS, WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EASTWARD AS
STEERING FLOW SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-DRIFTING RIDGE.
BROADLY-SPEAKING, THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SORT OF A TUG-OF-
WAR BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING DRY
SW FLOW INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND SUBTROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMING UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WITH SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AHEAD FOR THE TROUT FIRE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (BELOW
RED FLAG CONDITIONS, NOT AS BAD AS LAST TUESDAY).
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT ALSO SOME
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO THE LOWLANDS OF FAR SW NEW MEXICO ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SIERRA MADRES. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY TRY AND MODERATE THE DRYNESS OUT WEST, AND
THERE'S AN INCREASING CHANCE WE'LL POP AM ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
OVER THE GILA BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. EVENTUALLY, THE MOISTURE
WILL WIN OUT AND EXPAND WESTWARD AS THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH LIFTS
OUT AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY, "SPREADING THE WEALTH" OF MONSOON PRECIP TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA BORDER BY TUESDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-S ORIENTED RIDGE LINES. GFS ENSEMBLE CHARTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT ELP. THE MEAN PEAKS ON
MONDAY WITH A PWAT OF 1.50 INCHES (IN JUNE!), THEN SLOWLY
DECLINES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAINS ABOVE 1.10 INCHES.
THE DOWNSIDE...WHILE WE ALL WANT RAIN, WE CAN'T REALLY GET IT
AROUND HERE WITHOUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER HAZARDS. THE RISK OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SEVEN SPRINGS FIRES IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE "WETTER" AND LESS SPOTTY STORM COVERAGE
FOLLOW. SIMILARLY, THE TROUT FIRE WILL HAVE A DAY OR TWO WITH
GUSTIER, DRIER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEFORE THE MOISTURE SETS
IN. THEN WE GET TO CONSIDER BURN SCAR FLOODING POTENTIAL. ANY
EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK INTO THE SW NEW MEXICO DESERTS
COULD KICK UP SOME DUST, AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A RISK EVEN
AWAY FROM BURN AREAS, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THE OTHER GOOD NEWS...I WENT A WHOLE AFD WITHOUT MENTIONING HIGH
HEAT (UNTIL NOW). TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH A LOT OF 80S EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WINDS AOB 8KTS PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY BY
THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KTS FROM THE S. WINDS STAY ELEVATED NEAR
10KTS AFTER SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS, SHIFTING SW. MAINLY SKC
THROUGH THE AM, THEN FEW-SCT100 DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOWS, SO VRB20G30KT AND/OR BLDU CAN BE SEEN
INTO THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, KEEPING THE
GILA REGION DRY AND BREEZY. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10-20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN FWZ110, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. STORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THOSE AREAS AS THE DRY, SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PM SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. PREVAILING WINDS IN
MOST AREAS WILL BE 5-15 MPH FROM THE S-SW. BEGINNING SUN/MON,
AREA- WIDE RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE FROM EAST TO WEST AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION. WETTING RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED MON/TUE
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND BURN SCAR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON RECENT
BURNS. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN
FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
MIN RHS WILL BE 8-25% THROUGH SATURDAY, RISING TO 30-60% BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 103 78 102 77 / 10 20 30 30
SIERRA BLANCA 95 69 95 68 / 20 20 40 40
LAS CRUCES 101 70 98 70 / 10 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 100 72 100 71 / 10 10 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 77 54 76 54 / 20 10 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 71 100 71 / 10 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 95 65 90 61 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 104 70 100 69 / 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 102 67 98 66 / 10 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 78 99 78 / 10 20 30 30
DELL CITY 100 72 100 71 / 10 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 103 76 102 74 / 10 20 40 40
LOMA LINDA 94 71 93 71 / 20 20 30 30
FABENS 103 75 100 76 / 10 20 30 40
SANTA TERESA 101 73 97 74 / 10 20 30 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 75 100 76 / 10 20 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 101 68 98 69 / 10 20 20 20
HATCH 103 68 100 69 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 103 74 100 74 / 20 20 20 30
OROGRANDE 99 72 98 72 / 10 10 20 30
MAYHILL 88 59 88 58 / 40 20 20 20
MESCALERO 88 59 87 58 / 20 10 20 20
TIMBERON 85 55 84 55 / 30 20 20 20
WINSTON 92 58 90 56 / 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 100 66 97 65 / 10 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 100 65 97 66 / 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 96 56 91 56 / 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 98 65 94 62 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 101 60 97 61 / 0 0 10 0
MULE CREEK 98 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 97 66 93 65 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 102 67 98 66 / 20 20 10 10
HACHITA 101 67 96 66 / 20 20 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 69 96 66 / 20 20 30 30
CLOVERDALE 95 65 90 63 / 20 20 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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