315
FXUS64 KEPZ 202344
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 103, BECOMING COOLER NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE ARRIVES.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING
THE AREA MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE MOVING
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS MIGRATED TOWARDS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY, WHERE IT WILL STAY AND TOUR THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A
POTENT LOW WILL SWING INTO THE PACNW, ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO FALL ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND FROM AN OPPRESSIVE 594DAM TO 588DAM BY SATURDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO A WELCOMED COOLING TREND AREAWIDE. THE TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE
WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS WHERE GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 35 MPH DURING PEAK MIXING. ELSEWHERE, POSITION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE SNAKING UP OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CHIHUAHUAN DESERT. WHILE PWATS DON'T INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE RECYCLING MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS
ALONG THE RGV AND EASTWARD. GIVEN LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN
THE COLUMN, STORMS MAY TREND TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE, WITH SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS BEING A PRIMARY CONCERN.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, THE GREAT BASIN LOW FALLS INTO A VERY ELONGATED
TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO ALLOW THE SLUG OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE
DRAWN UP ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.
ORIENTATION OF THIS PLUME WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN
HIGH TERRAIN AND BRISK STORM MOTIONS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH 12Z
MONDAY PWATS FORECAST TO REACH TOWARDS A REACH 1.5 INCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT OF
EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS, THE CONDITIONS OF WHICH WILL LAST WELL INTO
LATE WEEK. THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REPEATED BOUTS OF STORMS WILL
CREATE AN ENHANCED RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK FOR THE TROUT AND SEVEN SPRINGS FIRES, AS WELL AS THE SALT
BURN SCAR.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE, WITH NO SIGHTINGS OF THE CENTURY MARK
LIKELY AFTER SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 03Z, WITH SURFACE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AROUND ANY OUTFLOWS. PREVAILING SURFACE WIND 200-240 AT
10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT
OF TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY. SKIES SCT-BKN140 WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPORARY SHRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO LOCAL
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASED STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE BORDERLAND
TONIGHT, FORCING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO FALL INTO THE POOR TO FAIR
CATEGORIES FOR MOST ZONES TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
WORK TO ENHANCE FLOW ALOFT AND TURBULENT MIXING, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW
DOUBLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED AND SHORT DURATION CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, MODEST MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORMS
WILL BE A COMBINATION WET/DRY, CAPABLE OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY LIGHTNING.
A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKS TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED STORM COVERAGE.
MOISTURE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, REACHING
NEAR-RECORD VALUES. DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST WILL HAVE BRISK STORM MOTIONS, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS, THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE ENHANCED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK, SALT, SEVEN
SPRINGS, AND TROUT FIRE AREAS/BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 101 77 95 / 20 10 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA 69 94 69 91 / 10 20 50 70
LAS CRUCES 70 98 70 93 / 20 10 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 73 99 70 94 / 10 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 55 76 53 72 / 10 10 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 99 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 63 89 61 86 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 71 98 71 96 / 20 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 97 66 94 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 77 94 / 20 10 40 50
DELL CITY 73 99 71 94 / 10 10 20 50
FORT HANCOCK 76 101 74 96 / 10 20 50 70
LOMA LINDA 71 93 69 89 / 10 10 30 50
FABENS 76 101 76 95 / 10 10 40 50
SANTA TERESA 74 97 74 93 / 20 10 40 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 99 76 94 / 10 10 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 69 98 68 94 / 10 10 20 30
HATCH 69 100 70 95 / 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 75 99 75 96 / 20 20 30 30
OROGRANDE 73 97 71 93 / 10 10 20 40
MAYHILL 59 87 58 83 / 10 20 10 60
MESCALERO 59 86 58 83 / 0 10 10 50
TIMBERON 54 85 53 81 / 10 10 20 50
WINSTON 56 90 55 87 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 66 96 64 92 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 65 98 65 94 / 10 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 59 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 64 93 63 89 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 62 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 61 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 93 64 90 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 97 66 95 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 96 67 94 / 10 10 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 95 66 92 / 20 20 30 30
CLOVERDALE 65 90 64 87 / 10 10 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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