113
FXUS64 KEPZ 210430
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD STARTING MONDAY. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 1-2" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WARM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. EL PASO WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 80
DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH A
PACIFIC LOW OVER OREGON/IDAHO WILL PROMOTE A STEADY SSW FLOW OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. FETCH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR SATURDAY,
MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPER, MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. COVERAGE INCREASING EVEN MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON MONDAY. SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BECOME FIXED IN A REGION OF CONFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, CONCENTRATING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE
AND FOCUSING IT OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5" BEGIN MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JUNE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
QPF RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE WEEKLY RAIN TOTALS IN THE 1.5-2.5"
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS OVER MOUNTAIN
FORESTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SHEER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE MAY EVENTUALLY
REDUCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND HINDER THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH BY
MIDWEEK WITH MORE "SHOWERY" ACTIVITY. WHILE RAIN WILL BE GREATLY
WELCOMED IN MANY LOCATIONS, FLOODING COULD BE MAGNIFIED AROUND OUR
NEW BURN SCARS IN THE GILA AND LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS.
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
DECREASE (BUT NOT FULLY ERODE) RAIN CHANCES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH OVERALL
LOWER RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE NM/AZ STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER
90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SCT-BKN150 OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. NO MENTION OF
VCSH IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS.
PREVAILING SURFACE WIND 200-240 AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TSRA AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH DECENT
CHANCES FOR KLRU/KELP. GUSTY OUTFLOW UP TO 40 KNOTS AND TEMPORARY
RA PRIMARY HAZARDS. MAY NEED TO ADD TS TO FUTURE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON RH 15-20% AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION WITH
TRANSPORT TO THE NE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS OVER LNF FIRE OPERATIONS IN THE EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDING WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PROBABILITY (90-100%) IN RAIN FOR LOCAL FORESTS WITH
FORECASTED WEEKLY TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS 2-3". STORMS MAY RESULT IN
BURN SCAR AND FLASH FLOODING. ERCS DECREASING RAPIDLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE RAIN, LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO OUR PEAK WILDFIRE
SEASON LOCALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONSOON SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 101 78 95 / 20 10 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA 70 95 68 89 / 0 30 50 70
LAS CRUCES 71 98 71 92 / 20 10 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 73 99 71 95 / 10 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 55 77 53 73 / 10 10 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 98 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 63 89 61 86 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 70 99 71 95 / 20 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 67 96 66 93 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 98 77 92 / 20 10 30 50
DELL CITY 73 99 71 95 / 10 20 20 60
FORT HANCOCK 76 101 74 95 / 10 30 50 70
LOMA LINDA 70 93 70 88 / 10 20 30 50
FABENS 76 101 74 95 / 20 20 40 60
SANTA TERESA 74 97 74 92 / 20 10 30 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 99 76 94 / 20 10 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 69 98 68 93 / 20 10 20 30
HATCH 70 100 71 96 / 20 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 76 99 74 95 / 30 20 30 30
OROGRANDE 73 97 71 92 / 20 10 30 40
MAYHILL 59 88 58 84 / 10 20 20 70
MESCALERO 59 88 58 84 / 10 10 10 50
TIMBERON 54 85 54 80 / 10 10 20 60
WINSTON 58 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 67 96 65 93 / 10 0 10 20
SPACEPORT 66 98 66 93 / 10 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 64 93 63 90 / 10 0 10 10
CLIFF 63 96 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 61 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 93 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 97 66 94 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 70 96 68 93 / 10 10 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 95 65 92 / 20 20 20 30
CLOVERDALE 65 90 63 87 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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