721
FXUS64 KEPZ 211050
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
450 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD STARTING MONDAY. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 1-2" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WARM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. EL PASO WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 80
DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH A
PACIFIC LOW OVER OREGON/IDAHO WILL PROMOTE A STEADY SSW FLOW OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. FETCH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR SATURDAY,
MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPER, MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. COVERAGE INCREASING EVEN MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON MONDAY. SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BECOME FIXED IN A REGION OF CONFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, CONCENTRATING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE
AND FOCUSING IT OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5" BEGIN MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JUNE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
QPF RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE WEEKLY RAIN TOTALS IN THE 1.5-2.5"
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS OVER MOUNTAIN
FORESTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SHEER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE MAY EVENTUALLY
REDUCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND HINDER THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH BY
MIDWEEK WITH MORE "SHOWERY" ACTIVITY. WHILE RAIN WILL BE GREATLY
WELCOMED IN MANY LOCATIONS, FLOODING COULD BE MAGNIFIED AROUND OUR
NEW BURN SCARS IN THE GILA AND LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS.
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
DECREASE (BUT NOT FULLY ERODE) RAIN CHANCES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH OVERALL
LOWER RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE NM/AZ STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER
90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250. AFTER
18Z...SCATTERED BKN-OVC060CB -TSRA DEVELOPING MAINLY FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EAST. THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED TO THE WEST. PEA-
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KELP/KLRU; NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE WITH KDMN/KTCS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST ZONES TODAY AS HUMIDITY
REMAINS LOW AND TEMPERATURES HIGH...HUMIDITY OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS A BIT HIGHER WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREA-WIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE MON-THU PERIOD, AND THE EMPHASIS SWITCHES FROM
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TO FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY OVER
RECENT FIRE BURN SCARS. DAILY RAINFALL COULD APPROACH ONE INCH,
AND TOTAL RAINFALL SUN THROUGH THU COULD APPROACH THREE INCHES
AROUND THE FIRE ZONES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-16% TODAY, INCREASING 20-35% BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AND TO 35-45% TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS 10-20%
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE GILA/BLACK RANGE, INCREASING TO 35-50%
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; 15-25% TODAY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MTNS,
INCREASING 60-75% MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 101 78 95 73 / 10 30 50 60
SIERRA BLANCA 95 68 89 65 / 30 50 70 80
LAS CRUCES 98 71 92 66 / 10 20 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 99 71 95 66 / 10 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 77 53 73 50 / 10 10 60 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 98 71 95 68 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 89 61 86 60 / 0 10 10 0
DEMING 99 71 95 66 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 96 66 93 63 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 98 77 92 73 / 10 30 50 50
DELL CITY 99 71 95 69 / 20 20 60 60
FORT HANCOCK 101 74 95 71 / 30 50 70 80
LOMA LINDA 93 70 88 67 / 20 30 50 60
FABENS 101 74 95 72 / 20 40 60 70
SANTA TERESA 97 74 92 70 / 10 30 40 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 99 76 94 72 / 10 20 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 98 68 93 65 / 10 20 30 30
HATCH 100 71 96 65 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 99 74 95 70 / 20 30 30 30
OROGRANDE 97 71 92 68 / 10 30 40 50
MAYHILL 88 58 84 55 / 20 20 70 40
MESCALERO 88 58 84 55 / 10 10 50 30
TIMBERON 85 54 80 52 / 10 20 60 50
WINSTON 90 56 87 51 / 0 0 10 0
HILLSBORO 96 65 93 61 / 0 10 20 10
SPACEPORT 98 66 93 62 / 0 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 91 56 87 55 / 0 0 10 0
HURLEY 93 63 90 59 / 0 10 10 0
CLIFF 96 61 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 91 59 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 93 65 90 62 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 97 66 94 64 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 96 68 93 64 / 10 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 95 65 92 65 / 20 20 30 20
CLOVERDALE 90 63 87 62 / 10 20 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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