975
FXUS64 KEPZ 212348
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
548 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVERNIGHT. NEW RAIN
AMOUNTS 1-2" ALONG RIO GRANDE VALLEY, 2-3" OVER SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ONE OF WARM AFTERNOON TODAY WITH EL PASO LIKELY REACHING 100
DEGREES. THIS WILL BE EL PASO'S LAST TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH FOR A
WHILE AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS UPON US.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH A
PACIFIC LOW OVER OREGON/IDAHO WILL PROMOTE A STEADY SSW FLOW OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. FETCH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPER, MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EL PASO,
HUDSPETH, AND OTERO COUNTIES AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. COVERAGE INCREASING
EVEN MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AGAIN BIASED OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE.
STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING ON MONDAY. SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BECOME FIXED IN A REGION OF CONFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, CONCENTRATING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE
AND FOCUSING IT OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5" BEGIN MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE JUNE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
QPF RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE WEEKLY RAIN TOTALS IN THE 1.5-2.5"
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS OVER MOUNTAIN
FORESTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHEER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE MAY EVENTUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND HINDER THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH BY MIDWEEK WITH MORE
"SHOWERY" ACTIVITY. WHILE RAIN WILL BE GREATLY WELCOMED IN MANY
LOCATIONS, FLOODING COULD BE MAGNIFIED AROUND OUR NEW BURN SCARS
IN THE GILA AND LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS.
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
DECREASE (BUT NOT FULLY ERODE) RAIN CHANCES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH OVERALL
LOWER RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE NM/AZ STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER
90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
IN HUDSPETH COUNTY IS STRUGGLING. SO FAR, NO SIGN OF A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR RELATED DUST TO THE SOUTH. FOR NOW I HAVE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ONLY IN THE KELP TAF.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LACK OF
LARGE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING, I'M NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF CLOUDS SO OUR CEILINGS WILL STAY UNLIMITED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE COULD SEE SOME OFF AND ON MID AND HIGH CLOUDS,
BUT NOTHING MUCH TO CAUSE A PROBLEM. OUR CURRENT GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LOW END GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER RAIN CHANCE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FOR NOW MY
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
TAF'S.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DECREASING FIRE RISK ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER GNF WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON RH 15-20% AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LNF. VERY GOOD SMOKE
VENTILATION WITH TRANSPORT TO THE NE. OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS OVER LNF FIRE OPERATIONS IN THE EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDING WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PROBABILITY (90-100%) IN RAIN FOR LOCAL FORESTS WITH
FORECASTED WEEKLY TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS 2-3" FOR LNF AND 0.5-1" FOR
GNF. STORMS MAY RESULT IN BURN SCAR AND FLASH FLOODING. ERCS
DECREASING RAPIDLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE RAIN, LIKELY BRINGING AN
END TO OUR PEAK WILDFIRE SEASON LOCALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MONSOON SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 95 74 93 / 40 50 60 50
SIERRA BLANCA 68 89 64 79 / 60 80 90 80
LAS CRUCES 71 93 66 92 / 20 30 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 71 94 66 90 / 20 40 40 60
CLOUDCROFT 54 73 51 66 / 10 50 40 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 96 68 94 / 0 10 0 20
SILVER CITY 61 86 59 88 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 70 96 66 95 / 20 20 10 20
LORDSBURG 66 93 64 93 / 10 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 92 74 90 / 40 50 60 50
DELL CITY 72 95 69 85 / 40 70 70 70
FORT HANCOCK 75 95 71 88 / 60 80 80 70
LOMA LINDA 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
FABENS 75 94 71 90 / 50 70 70 60
SANTA TERESA 74 92 70 90 / 40 50 50 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 94 72 92 / 20 40 40 50
JORNADA RANGE 69 93 64 92 / 20 30 30 40
HATCH 70 97 65 95 / 10 20 10 30
COLUMBUS 74 95 70 95 / 30 30 20 30
OROGRANDE 72 92 68 88 / 30 40 50 60
MAYHILL 58 84 56 75 / 10 60 40 80
MESCALERO 58 84 55 78 / 10 40 30 70
TIMBERON 54 80 51 74 / 20 60 50 70
WINSTON 57 87 52 86 / 0 10 0 20
HILLSBORO 65 94 60 93 / 10 10 0 30
SPACEPORT 67 94 63 93 / 10 20 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 57 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 62 90 59 90 / 10 10 0 20
CLIFF 61 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 58 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 65 89 61 90 / 10 10 0 20
ANIMAS 66 93 64 93 / 10 10 10 30
HACHITA 67 92 64 92 / 20 10 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 91 65 90 / 20 20 20 50
CLOVERDALE 63 87 62 86 / 10 10 10 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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