174
FXUS64 KEPZ 220426
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1026 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, BECOMING WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 1-2" ALONG RIO GRANDE VALLEY, 2-3"
OVER SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DID WE SEE THE LAST OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ON SATURDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF EL PASO (OR ANYONE IN THE LOWLANDS) SEEING ANOTHER
TRIPLE DIGIT READING ON SUNDAY IS LESS THAN 20%. AS OUR
TEMPERATURES DECREASE, THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE HANGING OUT IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE FEATURES WILL
DRAW UP ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AT
FIRST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW'S) VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM 0.50 TO 0.80
INCHES TO 1.3 TO 1.5+ WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH PW'S. SO WE
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONE THING WE ARE MISSING IS A CLEAR LIFTING
MECHANISM. IF WE GET LOTS AND LOTS OF CLOUDS AND DON'T HAVE A
LITTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, IT WILL LIMIT OUR
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOMEWHAT HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST. 5 DAY RAIN TOTALS
IN A FEW PLACES IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO, THE LOWER THE RAIN AMOUNTS. BUT
EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SILVER CITY, WE COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CHANGE, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND WE ARE IN BETWEEN ON A MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT. THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOOD WILL INCREASE AS WE
MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT AND
ON GOING BURN SCARS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW AVERAGE, BUT BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING 7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. YES, THAT MEANS EVEN THE
LOWLANDS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80'S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
WHICH WILL CUT OFF OUR MOISTURE PLUME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN DUE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE, BUT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN AND SUNDAY IS
THE TRANSITION DAY. AT FIRST THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WHOLE
REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON MID AND HIGH CEILINGS OF
BKN120-150. THE LOW END GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND WE MAY SEE SOME OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BOTH THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DROP OFF IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WE MAY SEE THOSE LOW END GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW I'M STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN IN ANY OF THE TAF'S (EXCEPT FOR
KELP). LOCATIONS LIKE KDMN AND KTCS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY, BUT THE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DECREASING FIRE RISK ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER GNF WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON RH 15-20% AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LNF. VERY GOOD SMOKE
VENTILATION WITH TRANSPORT TO THE NE. OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS OVER LNF FIRE OPERATIONS IN THE EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDING WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PROBABILITY (90-100%) IN RAIN FOR LOCAL FORESTS WITH
FORECASTED WEEKLY TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS 2-3" FOR LNF AND 0.5-1" FOR
GNF. STORMS MAY RESULT IN BURN SCAR AND FLASH FLOODING. ERCS
DECREASING RAPIDLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE RAIN, LIKELY BRINGING AN
END TO OUR PEAK WILDFIRE SEASON LOCALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MONSOON SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 96 74 93 / 40 40 40 50
SIERRA BLANCA 68 89 66 81 / 40 80 80 80
LAS CRUCES 70 93 66 92 / 20 10 10 30
ALAMOGORDO 71 94 67 90 / 20 20 20 50
CLOUDCROFT 54 73 51 66 / 20 50 20 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 61 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 70 96 65 96 / 10 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 65 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 93 74 91 / 30 30 30 40
DELL CITY 73 94 69 85 / 30 60 60 80
FORT HANCOCK 76 94 71 89 / 40 80 70 80
LOMA LINDA 70 87 67 82 / 40 40 50 60
FABENS 76 94 71 91 / 40 50 50 60
SANTA TERESA 75 92 70 90 / 30 30 30 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 94 71 92 / 20 20 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 69 94 64 93 / 20 10 10 30
HATCH 71 96 64 96 / 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 74 96 69 95 / 20 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 73 92 69 87 / 20 30 30 50
MAYHILL 58 84 55 76 / 20 60 30 80
MESCALERO 59 84 54 79 / 10 50 20 70
TIMBERON 55 80 52 74 / 30 40 30 70
WINSTON 57 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 65 94 60 93 / 10 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 66 94 62 93 / 10 10 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 63 89 58 90 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 61 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 58 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 65 89 61 90 / 10 0 0 20
ANIMAS 65 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 20
HACHITA 67 93 63 93 / 10 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 92 64 92 / 10 10 10 40
CLOVERDALE 63 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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