410
FXUS64 KEPZ 221102
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
502 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, BECOMING WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 1-2" ALONG RIO GRANDE VALLEY, 2-3"
OVER SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
DID WE SEE THE LAST OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ON SATURDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF EL PASO (OR ANYONE IN THE LOWLANDS) SEEING ANOTHER
TRIPLE DIGIT READING ON SUNDAY IS LESS THAN 20%. AS OUR
TEMPERATURES DECREASE, THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE HANGING OUT IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE FEATURES WILL
DRAW UP ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AT
FIRST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW'S) VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM 0.50 TO 0.80
INCHES TO 1.3 TO 1.5+ WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH PW'S. SO WE
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONE THING WE ARE MISSING IS A CLEAR LIFTING
MECHANISM. IF WE GET LOTS AND LOTS OF CLOUDS AND DON'T HAVE A
LITTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, IT WILL LIMIT OUR
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOMEWHAT HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST. 5 DAY RAIN TOTALS
IN A FEW PLACES IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO, THE LOWER THE RAIN AMOUNTS. BUT
EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SILVER CITY, WE COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CHANGE, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND WE ARE IN BETWEEN ON A MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT. THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOOD WILL INCREASE AS WE
MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT AND
ON GOING BURN SCARS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW AVERAGE, BUT BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING 7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. YES, THAT MEANS EVEN THE
LOWLANDS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80'S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
WHICH WILL CUT OFF OUR MOISTURE PLUME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN DUE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE, BUT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SCT120 SCT250. DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SCT-BKN100 WITH
SCATTERED OVC070CB 3-5SM -TSRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TO
THE WEST. PEA-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS. KELP AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KLRU, BOTH HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 23Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING
BY AROUND 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY
AND MONDAY AS HIGHER HUMIDITY MOVES IN FROM THE EAST, THOUGH
THOSE DRY, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. BURN SCARS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. AREA WIDE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN SOME. THIS WEEK TRANSITIONS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MONSOON SEASON, SO HOPEFULLY THE PEAK
WILDFIRE SEASON WILL COME TO A CLOSE AFTER THIS WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS: 8-14% WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY..18-25% TO THE EAST; INCREASING TO 25-40% ALL LOWLANDS
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS: 10% GILA/BLACK RANGE TODAY
INCREASING TO 20-35% MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY; SACRAMENTO MTNS 25-35%
TODAY INCREASING TO 45-65% MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT TODAY AND MONDAY BECOMING FAIR-GOOD TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 96 74 93 73 / 40 40 50 70
SIERRA BLANCA 89 66 81 65 / 80 80 80 70
LAS CRUCES 93 66 92 69 / 10 10 30 60
ALAMOGORDO 94 67 90 66 / 20 20 50 60
CLOUDCROFT 73 51 66 50 / 50 20 70 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 96 67 94 70 / 0 0 20 50
SILVER CITY 86 58 88 61 / 0 0 10 40
DEMING 96 65 96 70 / 0 0 20 60
LORDSBURG 93 62 94 64 / 0 0 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 93 74 91 74 / 30 30 40 70
DELL CITY 94 69 85 69 / 60 60 80 70
FORT HANCOCK 94 71 89 72 / 80 70 80 70
LOMA LINDA 87 67 82 66 / 40 50 60 70
FABENS 94 71 91 72 / 50 50 60 70
SANTA TERESA 92 70 90 71 / 30 30 40 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 94 71 92 72 / 20 20 40 70
JORNADA RANGE 94 64 93 67 / 10 10 30 60
HATCH 96 64 96 68 / 10 10 20 60
COLUMBUS 96 69 95 72 / 10 10 20 60
OROGRANDE 92 69 87 67 / 30 30 50 70
MAYHILL 84 55 76 54 / 60 30 80 60
MESCALERO 84 54 79 54 / 50 20 70 60
TIMBERON 80 52 74 52 / 40 30 70 70
WINSTON 87 51 87 55 / 0 0 20 40
HILLSBORO 94 60 93 62 / 0 0 20 50
SPACEPORT 94 62 93 65 / 10 0 20 60
LAKE ROBERTS 87 53 89 57 / 0 0 10 40
HURLEY 89 58 90 63 / 0 0 10 40
CLIFF 92 58 94 61 / 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 87 56 89 59 / 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 89 61 90 64 / 0 0 20 50
ANIMAS 94 62 94 65 / 0 0 20 30
HACHITA 93 63 93 65 / 0 0 20 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 92 64 92 66 / 10 10 40 50
CLOVERDALE 87 61 88 65 / 0 0 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page