941
FXUS64 KEPZ 231152
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
552 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS
WEEK.
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE PEAKS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS 85 TO 95 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS WEEK AND AS A SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW BRINGS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE REGION, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
FEED THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER NEW MEXICO BY
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
TO THE WEST.
THIS PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY THE
EASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AND ARE INDICATIVE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE SOME SUBTLE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS
LIKE MID LEVEL COOLING AND AND HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFTING ALOFT THAT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OCCURRING. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR UP 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY FRAME WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG RECENT WILDFIRE BURN
SCARS. A LARGE PART OF THE AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD HAS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD QUICKLY EXCEED
THOSE AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL DONA ANA AND
SIERRA COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO, THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WILL WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WEAKENS. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, BUT THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO
FLUSH OUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AN INCH, INDICATIVE A FAVORABLE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AREA WIDE THAT WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL IMPACT SENSITIVE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
DO THE SAME, ESPECIALLY AFTER 0Z. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. KELP IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE TS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS ACCOMPANYING THE ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, SHRA
PASS BY LATER IN THE PERIOD, MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PROB30S
HAVE BEEN REMOVED OTHER THAN FOR KELP AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AOB 8KTS THIS MORNING FROM S-SW, BECOMING A
BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON MORE FROM S. GUSTS FROM OUTFLOWS
COULD EXCEED 30KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED IN FWZ110 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS. 20-FT WINDS OF
10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW. THE DRY AIR WILL
START TO ERODE TODAY IN THE GILA REGION, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOWS MAY ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. THE
TROUT FIRE BURN SCAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IF ANY RAIN
TODAY, BUT THOSE CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MODEST WINDS FROM THE S-SW. SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREA- WIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS OFF RECENT BURN SCARS. THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING PEAKS ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY, LASTING INTO WED/THU AS RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
DECREASE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 10-25% WEST OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR TODAY, 25-45%
TO THE EAST; 50-80% IN FWZ113 TUE/WED, 25-50% ELSEWHERE. VENT
RATES RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT WEST OF 54 TODAY, POOR TO GOOD
TO THE EAST; THEN POOR TO GOOD AREA-WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 94 73 86 72 / 50 70 90 80
SIERRA BLANCA 83 64 82 64 / 80 80 80 60
LAS CRUCES 93 68 84 66 / 30 70 90 90
ALAMOGORDO 92 66 84 63 / 50 70 90 90
CLOUDCROFT 69 50 62 49 / 70 70 100 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 94 69 85 65 / 20 50 90 80
SILVER CITY 87 61 82 60 / 20 30 70 70
DEMING 95 70 89 67 / 30 50 80 90
LORDSBURG 93 64 90 65 / 20 30 60 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 93 73 85 72 / 40 70 90 90
DELL CITY 88 69 84 68 / 80 80 80 60
FORT HANCOCK 91 71 89 71 / 80 80 80 70
LOMA LINDA 84 66 79 65 / 60 80 90 80
FABENS 92 70 87 70 / 60 80 80 80
SANTA TERESA 92 70 85 68 / 40 70 90 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 94 71 84 71 / 40 60 90 90
JORNADA RANGE 93 66 84 64 / 30 70 90 90
HATCH 96 68 87 66 / 20 60 90 90
COLUMBUS 95 71 90 69 / 30 60 80 90
OROGRANDE 90 68 82 66 / 50 70 90 80
MAYHILL 80 54 72 54 / 80 70 100 80
MESCALERO 80 53 72 53 / 70 60 100 80
TIMBERON 76 52 70 51 / 70 70 90 80
WINSTON 86 54 78 55 / 30 40 80 70
HILLSBORO 93 63 84 61 / 30 40 90 80
SPACEPORT 93 64 84 63 / 20 60 90 90
LAKE ROBERTS 88 57 84 56 / 30 30 80 70
HURLEY 90 62 84 61 / 20 40 70 70
CLIFF 93 62 91 62 / 10 20 50 50
MULE CREEK 89 59 88 60 / 10 10 40 40
FAYWOOD 90 64 84 63 / 30 50 80 80
ANIMAS 93 65 91 66 / 30 30 60 60
HACHITA 92 66 89 64 / 40 50 70 80
ANTELOPE WELLS 90 65 89 65 / 60 50 70 80
CLOVERDALE 87 64 86 64 / 40 40 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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