646
FNUS74 KEPZ 111533
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE FIRE...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
933 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 MDT ON JULY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 15 MPH WITH EXCELLENT VENTING.
MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15000 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (38800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(140500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (218000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........1 14 14 29
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10
TEMP............82 92 95 94
RH..............22 15 13 13
20 FT WIND......NW 6 NW 8 NW 12 W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 22
MIX HGT (FT)....13400 13400 15000 15000
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 13 NW 13 W 15 W 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..141 141 218 218
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 8
MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (208100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(9500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........17 17 13 12 12 10
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............92 85 77 70 65 61
RH..............13 19 26 35 43 50
20 FT WIND......W 12 W 10 W 8 NW 6 NW 6 W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 21 14 14 9
MIX HGT (FT)....12200 12200 1200 1200 1100 1100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 20 NW 15 NW 15 NW 8 NW 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..208 208 14 14 10 10
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14200 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (29200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (117200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (138300
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY (%).........9 7 34
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 40
TEMP............58 79 90
RH..............55 27 15
20 FT WIND......NW 2G6 NW 2G9 W 5G14
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 14200 13900
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 8 NW 8 W 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..29 117 138
VENTRATE CAT....POOR VYGD VYGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS AROUND 90. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...LUNDEEN
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517818.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/11/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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