024
FXUS64 KEPZ 050425
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1025 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION GENERALLY DRY, AND HOT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES, A HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE EL PASO METRO
AREA AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
OUR BORDERLAND FORECAST WILL BE SET BY THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE
FEATURE WHICH HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION, BY IT'S STRENGTH, AND BY
ANY SUBTLE MOVEMENTS IT MAKES OVER TIME. CURRENTLY, THIS HUGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE
WESTERN BAJA COAST, TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. WE HAPPEN TO BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THEN CENTER OF THIS PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS HAS
ERADICATED MOST OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S/MONTH'S MONSOON MOISTURE,
AND REPLACED IT WITH VERY DRY AIR. IN ADDITION, THE SUBSIDENT
EFFECTS OF A HIGH PRESSURE AT 595-600DM IS MAKING FOR SOME OF THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING/SUMMER. WE EXPECT THE HIGH TO
FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS, MEANING WE COULD SEE
OUR TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD STILL. ALREADY, TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB FURTHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RELIEF FROM THESE HOT CONDITIONS WILL COME SLOW, AND IT WILL BE
ONLY MINIMAL. MODELS SHOW MOST OF OUR LOWLAND LOCATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MOVING ON, TO THE SUBJECT OF MOISTURE, RAIN, AND STORMS. THOSE WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS, AND
THE UPTICK IN RAIN/STORMS WILL BE LOW TO COME ALSO. MONDAY WAS
LIKELY THE DRIEST THE REGION WILL BE, IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS AND
PWAT, WITH BOTH ELEMENTS MAKING VERY SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY GAINS GOING
FORWARD. HOWEVER, WE ARE SO DRY, IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF GAINS TO
MAKE AN APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE, AND THIS SHOULD MEAN SEVERAL DAYS
OF GAINS BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY STORMS IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE
LIKELY TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FOR STORMS OVER THE GILA,
AS EARLY AS WED/THU, AND THEN THE SACS THU/FRI, BUT THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY, AND STORM-FREE UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND. ANY STORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LITTLE RAIN, BUT A LOT OF OUTFLOW WINDS, WHICH COULD RACE INTO THE
LOWLANDS, AND PICK UP DUST. SO WE WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THAT
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BOTTOM LINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION HOT AND DRY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A FEW CLOUDS. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TEMPERATURES QUITE HOT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY STORM/RAINFREE DAYS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA AREA MOUNTAINS, THEN SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE, AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFT NW TO ALLOW FOR A
RETURN OF STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE
HAS PUSHED OUT THE MONSOON MOISTURE, AND BROUGHT IN SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR OVER ALL TERMINALS. NO STORMS, FEW TO NO CLOUDS, AND
LIGHTISH WINDS (05-12KTS) THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
FAVOR AN OVERNIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT, BUT BE QUITE LIGHT. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
A HUGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE REGION, AND IT IS
STRENGTHENING. THIS MEANS A BREAK IN THE 2025 MONSOON SEASON, WITH A
RETURN OF LATE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS, OF EXTREME HEAT, AND
SIGNIFICANT DRYING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND
NEAR RECORD, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOWER THAN
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS MEANS POOR NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES,
AND AFTERNOON RH DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS. WE
WILL ALSO SEE A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS, RAIN, AND STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE WILL LURK ON THE
PERIMETER OF THE HIGH, WITH ONLY THE GILA HIGH COUNTRY SEEING ANY
REAL CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN/STORMS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME INCREASING
MOISTURE DOES SPIN CLOCKWISE OUT OF THE GILA, TOWARD THE SACS LATE
WEEK, TO GIVE THE LINCOLN SOME RAIN/STORM CHANCES. THE LOWLANDS
WILL LIKELY STAY DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
MID AND LATE WEEK, WILL BE HIGH BASED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, AND DRY LIGHTNING.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH DOES LOOK TO
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MINIMAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME ADDITIONAL GAINS IN MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 104 74 106 78 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 99 67 100 69 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 100 69 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 101 69 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 78 55 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 98 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 93 65 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 103 66 106 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 99 68 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 75 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 102 69 103 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 104 74 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 95 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 102 71 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 101 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 73 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 100 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 102 67 104 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 102 71 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 99 68 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 89 59 91 61 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 89 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 88 59 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 93 58 94 61 / 0 0 10 0
HILLSBORO 99 66 101 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 98 66 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 94 58 96 61 / 0 0 10 10
HURLEY 95 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 100 65 103 68 / 0 0 10 0
MULE CREEK 96 64 98 66 / 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 95 67 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 99 69 103 71 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 98 67 102 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 98 68 101 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 94 67 97 70 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page