115
FXUS64 KEPZ 051120
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION GENERALLY DRY, AND HOT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES, A HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE EL PASO METRO
AREA AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
OUR BORDERLAND FORECAST WILL BE SET BY THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE
FEATURE WHICH HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION, BY IT'S STRENGTH, AND BY
ANY SUBTLE MOVEMENTS IT MAKES OVER TIME. CURRENTLY, THIS HUGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE
WESTERN BAJA COAST, TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. WE HAPPEN TO BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THEN CENTER OF THIS PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS HAS
ERADICATED MOST OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S/MONTH'S MONSOON MOISTURE,
AND REPLACED IT WITH VERY DRY AIR. IN ADDITION, THE SUBSIDENT
EFFECTS OF A HIGH PRESSURE AT 595-600DM IS MAKING FOR SOME OF THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING/SUMMER. WE EXPECT THE HIGH TO
FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS, MEANING WE COULD SEE
OUR TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD STILL. ALREADY, TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB FURTHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RELIEF FROM THESE HOT CONDITIONS WILL COME SLOW, AND IT WILL BE
ONLY MINIMAL. MODELS SHOW MOST OF OUR LOWLAND LOCATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MOVING ON, TO THE SUBJECT OF MOISTURE, RAIN, AND STORMS. THOSE WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS, AND
THE UPTICK IN RAIN/STORMS WILL BE LOW TO COME ALSO. MONDAY WAS
LIKELY THE DRIEST THE REGION WILL BE, IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS AND
PWAT, WITH BOTH ELEMENTS MAKING VERY SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY GAINS GOING
FORWARD. HOWEVER, WE ARE SO DRY, IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF GAINS TO
MAKE AN APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE, AND THIS SHOULD MEAN SEVERAL DAYS
OF GAINS BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY STORMS IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE
LIKELY TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FOR STORMS OVER THE GILA,
AS EARLY AS WED/THU, AND THEN THE SACS THU/FRI, BUT THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY, AND STORM-FREE UNTIL WE GET TO THE
WEEKEND. ANY STORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LITTLE RAIN, BUT A LOT OF OUTFLOW WINDS, WHICH COULD RACE INTO THE
LOWLANDS, AND PICK UP DUST. SO WE WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THAT
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BOTTOM LINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION HOT AND DRY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A FEW CLOUDS. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TEMPERATURES QUITE HOT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY STORM/RAIN-FREE DAYS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA AREA MOUNTAINS, THEN
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE, AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFT NW TO ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS
LIGHT AT 3-6 KNOTS AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING S/SE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 5-9 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND
WEST TX. WITH VERY LITTLE TO ALMOST ZERO WINDS ALOFT AND NON-
EXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE, DAILY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND TERRAIN/DRAINAGE
DRIVEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIN RH VALUES CRITICALLY
DRY.
MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR NMZ110, BEFORE ISOLATED
PROBABILITIES EXPAND AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ON DRIER
SIDE WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH CONVECTION WILL GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 106 78 107 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 100 69 100 65 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 102 70 102 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 102 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 80 55 80 54 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 100 70 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 95 67 97 66 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 106 69 106 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 102 70 105 72 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 103 77 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 103 70 103 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 105 76 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 98 70 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 104 74 104 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 102 73 103 73 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 103 75 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 101 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 104 70 105 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 104 72 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 100 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 10 0
MESCALERO 91 60 91 60 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 88 59 88 58 / 0 0 10 0
WINSTON 94 61 95 60 / 10 0 20 10
HILLSBORO 101 68 102 67 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 100 68 102 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 97 61 / 10 10 20 10
HURLEY 98 66 100 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 103 68 105 68 / 10 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 98 66 100 66 / 10 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 98 68 98 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 103 71 105 70 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 102 68 103 69 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 101 69 103 69 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 97 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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