280
FXUS64 KEPZ 051652
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION GENERALLY DRY, AND HOT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES, A HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE EL PASO METRO
AREA AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT AND OPPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL PARK OVER THE BORDERLAND
TODAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION, REACHING TO 600DAM HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE THE RESULT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLAND DESERTS. DID
CONTINUE TO ALREADY ISSUED ADVISORY BUT DECIDED TO ADD THE UPPER AND
LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK
ITSELF AROUND THE HIGH. STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STUBBORN HIGH
WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO BE UTILIZED IN
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
LOCALIZED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH LIMITED SPREADING INTO THE
LOWLANDS. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER,
PRIMING STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
OVER APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SMALL COOL-
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND AREAS EYEING TO DIP BELOW 100F.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TYPICAL AFTN
BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND
WEST TX. WITH VERY LITTLE TO ALMOST ZERO WINDS ALOFT AND NON-
EXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE, DAILY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND TERRAIN/DRAINAGE
DRIVEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIN RH VALUES CRITICALLY
DRY.
MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR NMZ110, BEFORE ISOLATED
PROBABILITIES EXPAND AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ON DRIER
SIDE WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH CONVECTION WILL GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 107 77 107 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 99 69 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 102 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 102 73 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 79 56 78 54 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 95 66 95 66 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 105 69 106 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 101 69 104 72 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 104 76 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 104 71 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 105 76 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 98 70 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 104 74 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 102 73 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 103 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 100 70 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 103 69 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 103 71 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 100 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 91 61 89 59 / 0 0 10 0
MESCALERO 90 61 89 59 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 87 58 85 57 / 0 0 10 0
WINSTON 93 61 92 61 / 10 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 100 67 100 66 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 100 68 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 95 57 95 61 / 10 10 20 10
HURLEY 97 66 97 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 102 69 103 69 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 97 62 99 66 / 10 0 20 10
FAYWOOD 97 68 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 102 71 103 70 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 101 69 102 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 69 102 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 96 69 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...99
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