043
FXUS64 KEPZ 051857 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1257 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION GENERALLY DRY, AND HOT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES, A HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE EL PASO METRO
AREA AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STOUT AND OPPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL PARK OVER THE BORDERLAND
TODAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION, REACHING TO 600DAM HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE THE RESULT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLAND DESERTS. DID
CONTINUE TO ALREADY ISSUED ADVISORY BUT DECIDED TO ADD THE UPPER AND
LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK
ITSELF AROUND THE HIGH. STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STUBBORN HIGH
WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO BE UTILIZED IN
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE
LOCALIZED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH LIMITED SPREADING INTO THE
LOWLANDS. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER,
PRIMING STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
OVER APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SMALL COOL-
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND AREAS EYEING TO DIP BELOW 100F.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TYPICAL AFTN
BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH WILL FALL TO AND BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR MOST ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TO TEMPER ANY THREAT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY
FAVORING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE BORDERLAND LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH COVERAGE STAYING
MOSTLY LOCALIZED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH POOR MOISTURE PROFILES,
STORMS WILL TREND DRIER AND BE MOSTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 107 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 102 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 56 78 54 77 / 0 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 66 95 66 94 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 69 106 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 104 72 101 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 103 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 102 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 102 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 102 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 102 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 104 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 89 59 88 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 61 89 59 89 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 58 85 57 85 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 61 92 61 92 / 10 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 67 100 66 99 / 0 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 100 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 95 61 95 / 10 20 10 20
HURLEY 66 97 66 97 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 69 103 69 102 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 62 99 66 98 / 0 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 68 97 69 95 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 71 103 70 102 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 102 69 101 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 69 97 69 96 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...99
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