391
FXUS64 KEPZ 060542
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1142 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A SPRAWLING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EL PASO METRO AREA,
THE LOWER VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- SOME LIMITED MOISTURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GILA REGION AND
SACRAMENTOS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
RAP13 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER ELP,
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RIGHT AT 600 DAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME RECYCLED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN UNDER THE
RIDGE, AND THIS HAS HELPED FEED SOME MOSTLY-DRY CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE GILA REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRETTY MUCH CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BASICALLY, MID TO LATE-JUNE CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON BASICALLY RESETS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH WILL FALL TO AND BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR MOST ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TO TEMPER ANY THREAT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY
FAVORING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE BORDERLAND LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH COVERAGE STAYING
MOSTLY LOCALIZED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH POOR MOISTURE PROFILES,
STORMS WILL TREND DRIER AND BE MOSTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 106 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 98 64 97 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 71 101 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 57 78 54 78 / 0 40 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 71 100 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 68 96 67 94 / 0 20 20 20
DEMING 68 105 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 68 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 101 69 101 / 0 10 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 103 71 103 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 68 96 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 104 70 102 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 75 104 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 90 60 88 / 0 30 20 30
MESCALERO 58 89 60 88 / 0 40 20 30
TIMBERON 57 86 59 86 / 0 30 20 20
WINSTON 58 93 61 92 / 10 30 20 20
HILLSBORO 62 100 67 99 / 0 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 66 100 69 99 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 96 54 95 / 20 40 20 30
HURLEY 65 98 67 96 / 0 20 20 20
CLIFF 59 103 65 102 / 0 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 57 99 58 98 / 0 20 20 10
FAYWOOD 68 97 69 96 / 0 20 20 20
ANIMAS 71 104 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 69 102 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 102 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 98 70 96 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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