719
FXUS64 KEPZ 061134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
- A SPRAWLING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
TODAY, THEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
INCLUDING EL PASO.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
RAP13 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER ELP,
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RIGHT AT 600 DAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME RECYCLED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING IN UNDER THE
RIDGE, AND THIS HAS HELPED FEED SOME MOSTLY-DRY CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE GILA REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRETTY MUCH CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BASICALLY, MID TO LATE-JUNE CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON BASICALLY RESETS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO MID-TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE AOB
8KTS MAINLY FROM S-SE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, DRIFTING TOWARDS KTCS INTO THE EVENING
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY OUTFLOWS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
MENTION OF TS/SH IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA MTNS, MORE SO
FWZ 110 WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. MORE ISOLATED AND
WEAKER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE SACS TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND DEEP MIXING DUE TO
HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE PATTERN OF ISOLATED
MTN STORMS CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK WITH ONGOING CHANCES OF DRY
LIGHTNING DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS, BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF STORMS AS DRY LIGHTNING BECOMES LESS OF A THREAT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY HOT FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 8-15% THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE LOWLANDS, 12-25% IN
THE MTNS. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD THROUGH SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 106 77 106 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 98 64 99 66 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 101 71 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 100 72 102 71 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 78 54 80 55 / 40 20 40 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 71 102 71 / 20 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 96 67 96 66 / 20 20 20 10
DEMING 105 70 104 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 103 72 103 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 76 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 101 69 103 69 / 10 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 103 71 105 72 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 96 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 102 71 103 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 101 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 100 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 104 70 104 70 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 104 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 99 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 90 60 90 60 / 30 20 30 0
MESCALERO 89 60 90 60 / 40 20 30 0
TIMBERON 86 59 88 58 / 30 20 20 0
WINSTON 93 61 94 60 / 30 20 20 10
HILLSBORO 100 67 101 67 / 20 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 100 69 101 69 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 96 54 97 60 / 40 20 30 10
HURLEY 98 67 98 66 / 20 20 20 10
CLIFF 103 65 104 67 / 20 20 20 10
MULE CREEK 99 58 100 65 / 20 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 97 69 98 67 / 20 20 20 10
ANIMAS 104 69 104 69 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 102 69 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 69 102 67 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 98 70 98 65 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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