532
FXUS64 KEPZ 061656
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1056 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREA MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
600 DAM UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE
COMPLETE CUTOFF OF MONSOONAL FLOW AND LOCAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 0.8" WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND
ONLY A STRAY WEAK SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT LOWLAND WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE
TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK, REACHING 104-108 DEGREES ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO, LAS CRUCES,
DEMING, AND LORDSBURG ZONES THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES,
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. TRIPLE-DIGIT LOWLAND
HIGHS CONTINUE. EL PASO WILL STILL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 102-106 DEGREES.
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FULLY ERODE THE UPPER HIGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES (PW 1.1-1.3") AND
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED (30-50%
COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED (10-30%
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE MOST COMMON, WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. FORECAST QPF FAVORS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM NEXT WEEK,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND FAR WEST TEXAS AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES SKC-FEW130 THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL CB COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 130-160 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FEW-SCT150
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW STORM COVERAGE
NEXT FEW DAYS, LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MINIMAL FLOOD RISK.
MIN RH 15-25% NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS RESULTING IN
GOOD VENTILATION.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (30-50%) OVER LNF/GNF AND AREA
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR STORMS MAY IMPACT FIRE PLANNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 106 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 99 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 101 71 100 69 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 101 72 100 71 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 78 55 78 54 / 10 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 71 100 71 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 96 67 95 67 / 20 10 10 10
DEMING 105 70 104 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 104 71 102 69 / 10 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 102 68 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 103 71 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 96 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 102 71 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 101 72 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 74 101 75 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 101 71 100 69 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 104 70 102 69 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 104 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 99 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 90 60 89 60 / 10 0 10 0
MESCALERO 90 60 89 59 / 10 10 10 0
TIMBERON 86 58 86 58 / 10 0 10 0
WINSTON 93 60 92 60 / 20 20 20 10
HILLSBORO 100 67 100 67 / 10 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 100 68 99 68 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 95 61 / 20 20 20 10
HURLEY 99 67 97 66 / 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 103 68 102 67 / 20 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 99 66 98 66 / 20 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 97 68 96 68 / 10 10 10 0
ANIMAS 104 70 102 69 / 10 10 0 10
HACHITA 102 69 101 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 98 70 97 65 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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