011
FXUS64 KEPZ 062340
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREA MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
600 DAM UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE
COMPLETE CUTOFF OF MONSOONAL FLOW AND LOCAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 0.8" WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND
ONLY A STRAY WEAK SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT LOWLAND WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE
TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK, REACHING 104-108 DEGREES ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO, LAS CRUCES,
DEMING, AND LORDSBURG ZONES THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES,
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. TRIPLE-DIGIT LOWLAND
HIGHS CONTINUE. EL PASO WILL STILL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 102-106 DEGREES.
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FULLY ERODE THE UPPER HIGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES (PW 1.1-1.3") AND
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED (30-50%
COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED (10-30%
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE MOST COMMON, WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. FORECAST QPF FAVORS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM NEXT WEEK,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND FAR WEST TEXAS AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW.
STORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO STAY CONFINED TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
AND GILA REGION THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BEFORE FIZZLING OUT LATER
THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING STORMS AT TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW STORM COVERAGE
NEXT FEW DAYS, LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MINIMAL FLOOD RISK.
MIN RH 15-25% NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS RESULTING IN
GOOD VENTILATION.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (30-50%) OVER LNF/GNF AND AREA
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR STORMS MAY IMPACT FIRE PLANNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 104 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 100 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 54 78 / 10 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 71 100 / 10 10 0 10
SILVER CITY 67 95 67 94 / 10 10 10 20
DEMING 70 104 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 102 69 101 / 10 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 101 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 101 75 102 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 100 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 70 102 69 102 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 89 60 89 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 60 89 59 89 / 10 10 0 10
TIMBERON 58 86 58 86 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 60 92 60 92 / 20 20 10 20
HILLSBORO 67 100 67 100 / 10 10 0 10
SPACEPORT 68 99 68 100 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 61 94 / 20 20 10 30
HURLEY 67 97 66 97 / 10 10 0 10
CLIFF 68 102 67 102 / 20 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 66 98 66 97 / 20 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 68 96 68 96 / 10 10 0 10
ANIMAS 70 102 69 101 / 10 0 10 10
HACHITA 69 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 70 97 65 94 / 10 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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