203
FXUS64 KEPZ 070440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
- HOT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR AREA MOUNTAIN STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
INCREASING CHANCES GRADUALLY EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER AREA MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NM AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EACH DAY DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE US/CANADA BORDER. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US
HERE LOCALLY WILL BE CONTINUED HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
(6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) DURING THIS TIME. AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES GO, PWS STAY BELOW AVERAGE TOMORROW THROUGH AROUND SATURDAY
BUT EACH DAY THERE'LL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY LOOKS BLEAK WITH LOW END STORM CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THE SUPPRESSION OF THE HIGH. SAFE TO SAY THE
AREA MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS. AS WE
INCREASE MOISTURE, THE FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS PWS LOOK TO BE A BIT BETTER (0.9"-1.1") WHICH WILL
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DISINTEGRATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD JUST
BE A REGULAR MONSOON DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN STORMS, ISOLATED LOWLANDS). FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT DOES INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH THE STEADY
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS
BEING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS (SACRAMENTOS AND GILA REGION).
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z NEAR
KTCS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IF THIS SOLUTION LOOKS
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). RELATIVELY
DRY AIR STAYS PUT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWLAND MIN RH VALUES
ANYWHERE FROM 10-20% BUT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
CRITICAL MIN RHS THROUGH SATURDAY. AREA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MIN RH
VALUES OF 20-30%. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AS TIME GOES ON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED OVER
THE AREA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK STARTING SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON DAY (SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS, ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS)
- THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FLOODING
THREAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 106 75 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 99 64 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 101 70 101 69 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 102 72 101 71 / 10 0 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 78 55 80 54 / 10 10 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 71 102 71 / 10 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 96 67 96 67 / 20 10 20 20
DEMING 105 70 104 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 104 71 103 69 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 102 68 103 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 104 71 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 96 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 102 72 103 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 101 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 73 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 101 70 102 69 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 104 70 103 69 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 104 73 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 100 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 90 60 91 60 / 10 10 30 0
MESCALERO 90 60 90 59 / 10 10 30 20
TIMBERON 86 58 87 58 / 10 0 30 0
WINSTON 93 60 95 60 / 20 20 20 20
HILLSBORO 100 67 100 67 / 10 10 20 20
SPACEPORT 100 68 100 67 / 0 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 98 61 / 20 20 20 20
HURLEY 99 67 99 66 / 10 10 10 20
CLIFF 103 68 103 67 / 20 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 99 67 100 66 / 20 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 97 69 98 68 / 10 10 20 20
ANIMAS 104 70 103 69 / 10 10 0 10
HACHITA 102 70 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 69 101 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 98 69 98 65 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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