264
FXUS64 KEPZ 071109
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
509 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
- HOT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR AREA MOUNTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME STARTING MONDAY, BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NM AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EACH DAY DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE US/CANADA BORDER. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US
HERE LOCALLY WILL BE CONTINUED HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
(6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) DURING THIS TIME. AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES GO, PWS STAY BELOW AVERAGE TOMORROW THROUGH AROUND SATURDAY
BUT EACH DAY THERE'LL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY LOOKS BLEAK WITH LOW END STORM CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THE SUPPRESSION OF THE HIGH. SAFE TO SAY THE
AREA MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH VERY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS. AS WE
INCREASE MOISTURE, THE FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS PWS LOOK TO BE A BIT BETTER (0.9"-1.1") WHICH WILL
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DISINTEGRATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD JUST
BE A REGULAR MONSOON DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN STORMS, ISOLATED LOWLANDS). FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT DOES INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH THE STEADY
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
SKC-SCT250 TODAY. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED BKN-OVC060CB -TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD TO
MUCH OF SIERRA COUNTY AFTER 22Z. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEAST 8-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). JUST ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES SUNDAY
AND THEN MORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALL ZONES ON THOSE DAYS. FLOODING POTENTIAL ALSO
INCREASES SOME, THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW IN THE RECENT PAST.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-15% THROUGH SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30% MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS MOSTLY 15-25% THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH
INCREASING TO 25-40% ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MTNS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 76 105 77 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 99 65 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 101 69 102 71 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 101 71 102 72 / 20 0 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 80 54 79 56 / 30 0 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 102 71 102 72 / 20 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 96 67 95 66 / 20 20 30 20
DEMING 104 69 104 70 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 103 69 102 69 / 10 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 103 68 103 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 104 72 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 97 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 103 71 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 101 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 103 74 103 75 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 102 69 102 71 / 0 0 20 10
HATCH 103 69 103 70 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 104 72 104 73 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 100 69 101 71 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 91 60 91 60 / 30 0 20 10
MESCALERO 90 59 90 61 / 30 20 20 10
TIMBERON 87 58 87 59 / 30 0 20 0
WINSTON 95 60 93 62 / 20 20 30 20
HILLSBORO 100 67 101 68 / 20 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 100 67 101 69 / 0 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 98 61 96 61 / 20 20 30 20
HURLEY 99 66 99 66 / 10 20 30 20
CLIFF 103 67 103 68 / 20 20 30 20
MULE CREEK 100 66 98 65 / 20 20 30 10
FAYWOOD 98 68 97 68 / 20 20 30 20
ANIMAS 103 69 101 71 / 0 10 20 20
HACHITA 102 67 101 69 / 0 0 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 101 67 100 68 / 0 0 20 20
CLOVERDALE 98 65 95 65 / 10 10 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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