397
FXUS64 KEPZ 071713
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1113 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE COMPLETE
CUTOFF OF MONSOONAL FLOW AND LOCAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 0.7" WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND ONLY A
STRAY WEAK SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT LOWLAND WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE TRIPLE-
DIGIT MARK AGAIN, REACHING 102-105 DEGREES ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES,
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. TRIPLE-DIGIT LOWLAND
HIGHS CONTINUE. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE
LOWER RGV THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL FULLY ERODE THE UPPER HIGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES (PW 1.1-1.3") AND
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY. NO MAJOR DAY-TO-
DAY CHANGES, WARM CONDITIONS AND A DAILY THUNDERSTORM CADENCE.
SCATTERED (40-60%) THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
(20-40%) ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE MOST COMMON, WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. FORECAST QPF FAVORS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM NEXT WEEK,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND FAR WEST TEXAS AREAS.
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES SKC-FEW130 THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL CB COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 110-140 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FEW-SCT140
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW STORM COVERAGE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MINIMAL FLOOD
RISK. MIN RH 15-25%, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS RESULTING IN GOOD
VENTILATION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (40-60%) OVER LNF/GNF AND AREA
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR STORMS MAY IMPACT FIRE PLANNING. ERCS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AUGUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 97 65 98 67 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 100 69 100 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 100 71 99 72 / 10 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 78 54 78 56 / 20 0 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 100 71 100 73 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 95 67 94 66 / 10 10 20 20
DEMING 104 69 104 71 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 102 68 100 69 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 101 67 102 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 102 72 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 95 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 101 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 100 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 100 69 99 71 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 102 69 102 71 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 102 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 99 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 89 60 89 61 / 20 0 20 10
MESCALERO 90 59 89 61 / 30 0 30 10
TIMBERON 87 58 86 59 / 20 0 20 10
WINSTON 93 59 93 63 / 20 10 20 20
HILLSBORO 100 67 99 69 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 100 67 99 70 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 95 61 95 61 / 20 10 20 20
HURLEY 97 66 97 67 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 102 67 102 68 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 99 66 97 66 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 96 67 96 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 103 67 100 70 / 0 0 10 20
HACHITA 101 67 99 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 67 99 68 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 97 64 94 65 / 0 0 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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