900
FXUS64 KEPZ 080421
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED LOWLAND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY GOING FORWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE STAGNANT BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO,
AND THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE PAUSE IN THE 2025 MONSOON SEASON, AS
THE RICH MOISTURE HAS BEEN FORCED OUT, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN IT'S
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT HEATWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EASE
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS, BUT
WE DEFINIETLY HAVE MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS TO COME. WE HAVE SEEN SOME
SLIGHT GAINS IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 72 HRS, BUT WE STILL NEED
MORE TO UNLOCK PRECIP/STORM CHANCES FOR THE LOWLANDS. AS IT STANDS,
OUR 3/4" PWATS ARE BARELY ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE COMBO OF
SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO CREATE MID-DAY/AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAINS STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH, AND A PUSH OF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER
CATRON AND SOCCORO COUNTIES, THE HIGH-RES CAM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
A LARGE-SCALE PUSH OF MOISTURE INBOUND TOMORROW EVENING FROM THE
NORTH, TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS TOMORROW (FRI EVE).
FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER HIGH HOLDS OVER THE REGION, BUT A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING OUT OF THE NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WILL WEAKEN IT SOME. FOR SATURDAY WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE
INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO REINFILTRATE THE REGION, FROM
THE SOUTH. WHAT MAY HELP US SEE MOISTURE GAINS, IS SOME INGEST OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SONORA, FROM TS IVO. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME GAINS
IN RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOWLANDS.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS GONE AS THE TROUGH AXIS, OF THE
AFORMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH, SWINGS ACROSS NM. THIS WILL LIKELY
HELP TO REESTABLISH A "MONSOONISH" MOISTURE CHANNEL BACK OVER THE
REGION. AS IT LOOKS NOW, SUNDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY OF
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. IF WE DO SEE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, THEN WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FINALLY, AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REFORMS TO
OUR WEST,AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST, LOOKING TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN AVERAGE, WITH MORE 100 DEGREE TEMPS
OVER EL PASO AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER IN STRENGTH, SO TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS HOT, AND IT WON'T BE
NEARLY AS EFFECTIVE IN SCOURING OUT MOISTURE. THIS MEANS WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF DAY-TO-DAY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, WITH
MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE, AND LOWLANDS GENERALLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE, WITH OUTFLOW ACTIVITY BEING THE PRINCIPLE DRIVER
OF WHEN/WHERE/HOW MUCH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
SKIES SKC-FEW130 OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 110-140 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. AFT 18Z SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS WITH MINIMAL CB/TS COVERAGE OVER MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS
OUT GENERALLY SE...WITH SOME S 5 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH SOME INFREQUENT
THERMAL GUSTING TO 18-20 KNOTS. AFT 03 Z COULD SEE A LINE OF STORMS
TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTH, TO IMPACT KTCS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS,
WITH LOWER CIGS AND TSRA. THAT SAME BAND OF BROKEN STORMS, RIDING A
SOUTHWARD TRACKING OUTFLOW, MAY THEN IMPACT KDMN AND KLRU AFT 02-03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW STORM COVERAGE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MINIMAL FLOOD
RISK. MIN RH 15-25%, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS RESULTING IN GOOD
VENTILATION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (40-60%) OVER LNF/GNF AND AREA
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR STORMS MAY IMPACT FIRE PLANNING. ERCS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AUGUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 104 75 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 97 65 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 100 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 101 70 101 72 / 10 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 78 54 80 56 / 20 0 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 100 70 102 73 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 95 66 96 67 / 10 0 10 20
DEMING 104 68 105 71 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 102 68 102 69 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 101 68 103 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 102 72 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 95 69 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 101 70 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 100 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 102 69 104 70 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 102 70 103 74 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 99 68 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 89 60 91 62 / 20 0 30 20
MESCALERO 90 59 90 61 / 30 0 30 30
TIMBERON 87 57 88 59 / 20 0 20 0
WINSTON 93 60 95 62 / 20 10 30 30
HILLSBORO 100 67 101 69 / 10 0 10 20
SPACEPORT 100 68 101 69 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 95 61 96 61 / 20 10 20 20
HURLEY 97 65 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 102 67 103 68 / 10 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 99 66 99 67 / 10 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 96 68 98 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 103 68 102 69 / 0 0 10 20
HACHITA 101 66 101 69 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 67 100 68 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 97 65 95 64 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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