295
FXUS64 KEPZ 081152
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
552 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED LOWLAND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY GOING FORWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE STAGNANT BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO,
AND THUS WE CONTINUE WITH THE PAUSE IN THE 2025 MONSOON SEASON, AS
THE RICH MOISTURE HAS BEEN FORCED OUT, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN IT'S
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT HEATWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EASE
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS, BUT
WE DEFINITELY HAVE MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS TO COME. WE HAVE SEEN
SOME SLIGHT GAINS IN MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 72 HRS, BUT WE STILL
NEED MORE TO UNLOCK PRECIP/STORM CHANCES FOR THE LOWLANDS. AS IT
STANDS, OUR 3/4" PWATS ARE BARELY ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
COMBO OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO CREATE MID-
DAY/AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAINS STORMS. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH, AND A PUSH OF OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS OVER CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES, THE HIGH-RES CAM MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE-SCALE PUSH OF MOISTURE INBOUND TOMORROW
EVENING FROM THE NORTH, TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW (FRI EVE).
FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER HIGH HOLDS OVER THE REGION, BUT A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING OUT OF THE NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WILL WEAKEN IT SOME. FOR SATURDAY WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE
INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO REINFILTRATE THE REGION, FROM
THE SOUTH. WHAT MAY HELP US SEE MOISTURE GAINS, IS SOME INGEST OF
MOISTURE ACROSS SONORA, FROM TS IVO. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME GAINS
IN RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOWLANDS.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS GONE AS THE TROUGH AXIS, OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH, SWINGS ACROSS NM. THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP TO REESTABLISH A "MONSOONISH" MOISTURE CHANNEL BACK
OVER THE REGION. AS IT LOOKS NOW, SUNDAY COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
DAY OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. IF WE DO
SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, THEN WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FINALLY, AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REFORMS TO
OUR WEST,AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST, LOOKING TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN AVERAGE, WITH MORE 100 DEGREE TEMPS
OVER EL PASO AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER IN STRENGTH, SO TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS HOT, AND IT WON'T BE
NEARLY AS EFFECTIVE IN SCOURING OUT MOISTURE. THIS MEANS WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF DAY-TO-DAY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, WITH
MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE, AND LOWLANDS GENERALLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE, WITH OUTFLOW ACTIVITY BEING THE PRINCIPLE DRIVER
OF WHEN/WHERE/HOW MUCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER A WEAKENING HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z AT ALL SITES, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS. KTCS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS, DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
TO STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. HIGH-BASED, FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WHILE A DIRECT IMPACT IS UNLIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS, STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT KTCS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES
AFTER 04Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. WHILE
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AREA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WE WILL SEE LOW END BREEZY
WINDS WITH MIN RH'S IN THE LOW TEENS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE GILA REGION AND THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO
WETTING RAIN BUT COULD GENERATE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS,
POSING A THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND CHALLENGING CONTAINMENT
EFFORTS.
BY SATURDAY, A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET UP
AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
THEY WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY INITIALLY. THE THREAT OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 (SUNDAY-TUESDAY), THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO
SCATTERED DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND
LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL, THE RISK OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER OPERATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MODEST WARMING TREND
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 99 67 99 68 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 101 70 101 70 / 0 10 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 101 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 80 56 78 54 / 30 20 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 102 73 100 71 / 10 20 10 30
SILVER CITY 96 67 95 63 / 10 20 50 40
DEMING 105 71 104 70 / 0 10 10 40
LORDSBURG 102 69 101 68 / 0 10 20 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 103 69 103 71 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 105 73 104 74 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 96 69 96 70 / 0 0 10 20
FABENS 104 72 104 74 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 101 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 103 75 102 74 / 0 0 10 30
JORNADA RANGE 101 69 100 70 / 0 10 10 40
HATCH 104 70 104 70 / 0 10 10 40
COLUMBUS 103 74 103 73 / 0 10 10 30
OROGRANDE 100 70 99 71 / 0 0 10 20
MAYHILL 91 62 89 61 / 30 20 40 20
MESCALERO 90 61 89 59 / 30 30 30 30
TIMBERON 88 59 86 58 / 20 0 20 20
WINSTON 95 62 92 59 / 30 30 40 40
HILLSBORO 101 69 99 66 / 10 20 30 50
SPACEPORT 101 69 100 68 / 10 10 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 95 58 / 20 20 60 50
HURLEY 98 67 97 64 / 10 10 30 40
CLIFF 103 68 102 66 / 10 10 50 30
MULE CREEK 99 67 98 63 / 10 10 40 30
FAYWOOD 98 69 97 66 / 10 10 30 40
ANIMAS 102 69 101 69 / 10 20 30 50
HACHITA 101 69 100 68 / 0 10 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 68 99 67 / 10 20 20 50
CLOVERDALE 95 64 94 65 / 10 30 40 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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