655
FXUS64 KEPZ 091059
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
459 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL ONLY SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
LUNA COUNTY AS WELL AS EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE FROM THE MOUNTAINS
IN TO THE LOWLANDS, WHERE MOISTURE WILL HAVE ONLY INCREASED
MODERATELY.
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RECYCLED
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
UL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. IT HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE FROM A 600 DM HIGH TO A 596
DM H500 HIGH. THE 00Z EPZ SOUNDING RECORDED 595 DM AT 500 MB. THE
EVENING SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED 0.52" OF PW, WHICH IS A NEW RECORD
LOW FOR 00Z AUGUST 9. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND WARM, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS LEFT THE CWA PRECIP/STORM FREE. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
INTO SATURDAY WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
RAIN AND STORM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS A RESULT, FAVORING
WESTERN AREAS. IN SPITE OF THE SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
WEAKENING H500 HIGH, BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW ABOUT A HALF
DEGREE C OF WARMING AT H850, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY IF NOT A DEGREE WARMER. DEMING HIT 105, SO I
ELECTED TO ADD LUNA COUNTY TO THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE ONE THING
THAT MAY SPOIL THE HIGH FORECAST IS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY THE HRRR SHOWS
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
HIGHS. THE HRRR THEN SHOWS COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
EVENING, EVEN LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY, SO GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS.
BY SUNDAY, WE QUICKLY REPLACE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A BROAD
TROUGH COVERING ROUGHLY THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CONUS THANKS TO A
LOW OVER CANADA. CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL FURTHER INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE TROUGH
NUDGES EASTWARD FOR MONDAY WHILE THE UL HIGH REFORMS OVER CA,
BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE CWA. MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST ON MONDAY (PW VALUES NEAR 1"), BUT WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FOSTER
STORM CHANCES.
WE MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS PUSHING THE UL RIDGE BACK EAST TOWARD OUR AREA,
REACHING US BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH (~591
DM AT H500) WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, SO STORM/ RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY. THE UL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP A MORE HEALTHY MONSOONAL PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT FLASH
FLOODING/ HEAVY RAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL, PLUS AND MINUS, FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SCT-BKN 200-250 THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
ISOLATED BKN-OVC060CB -TSRA DEVELOPING, THEN SPREADING DOWN TO THE
LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY FAVORED AREAS,
BUT WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KTCS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
ONE MORE DAY TODAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
GILA/BLACK RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALL ZONES. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME. MOISTURE DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-17% TODAY, INCREASING TO 15-25% THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS 12-18% TODAY, INCREASING TO
18-28% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SACRAMENTO MTNS 15-25% TODAY,
INCREASING TO 30-45% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN FAIR-GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 78 101 74 / 10 20 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 98 69 97 66 / 20 20 20 40
LAS CRUCES 101 71 97 67 / 10 30 20 50
ALAMOGORDO 100 71 97 66 / 20 20 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 77 56 74 50 / 20 20 50 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 100 72 97 67 / 20 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 96 64 91 61 / 30 40 70 40
DEMING 105 71 100 67 / 20 30 30 40
LORDSBURG 102 68 97 66 / 30 40 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 77 98 72 / 10 20 20 50
DELL CITY 102 71 99 69 / 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 103 74 100 71 / 20 20 20 40
LOMA LINDA 95 71 92 66 / 20 20 20 30
FABENS 102 74 99 71 / 20 20 10 30
SANTA TERESA 101 74 97 70 / 10 30 20 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 75 99 71 / 20 30 30 50
JORNADA RANGE 100 71 97 66 / 20 30 30 50
HATCH 103 71 99 66 / 20 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 104 74 99 70 / 10 30 20 50
OROGRANDE 99 72 96 68 / 20 20 20 40
MAYHILL 89 61 85 54 / 20 20 60 40
MESCALERO 89 61 86 54 / 20 20 50 50
TIMBERON 86 58 83 54 / 20 20 40 40
WINSTON 94 60 89 55 / 30 30 70 40
HILLSBORO 101 67 96 61 / 30 30 50 50
SPACEPORT 100 69 97 64 / 20 30 40 40
LAKE ROBERTS 95 59 91 56 / 40 40 80 40
HURLEY 98 65 93 62 / 30 30 60 40
CLIFF 103 65 98 64 / 30 30 60 30
MULE CREEK 99 63 94 62 / 30 30 50 30
FAYWOOD 98 67 93 63 / 30 30 60 40
ANIMAS 101 69 97 66 / 30 40 50 50
HACHITA 101 69 97 65 / 30 30 40 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 68 96 64 / 30 40 50 60
CLOVERDALE 95 64 90 62 / 40 50 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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