494
FXUS64 KEPZ 091813
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1213 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WE'LL START TO SEE A BREAK IN THAT PATTERN AS THUNDERSTORMS
TRY TO WORK INTO THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MORE GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST THAN
RAIN.
- EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, AND
THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
LAS CRUCES OR EL PASO AREA AFTER DARK, IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA.
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RECYCLED MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING A LITTLE, BUT
MOST LOWLAND AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS STILL HAS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, BUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFILTRATING THE AREA. THE 12Z EPZ
RAOB SHOWED PWAT VALUES UP TO 0.85 INCHES. THAT'S STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL, BUT IT'S THE HIGHEST WE'VE SEEN SINCE LAST SUNDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY OVER THE GILA REGION,
BUT BUT ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH 50S
OVER THE BOOTHEEL, AND EVEN AROUND 60 WEST OF THE PELONCILLOS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX-OUT INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
GILA REGION, AND BOOTHEEL DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
DRIER AIR, EXPECT STRONGER OUTFLOW TO PUSH INTO THE LOWLANDS OF SW
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE ARIZONA PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL FIND A MORE
FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN SE NM. OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS THE OTERO MESA AROUND SUNSET, SLOWLY BOOSTING MOISTURE
IN THE TULAROSA BASIN AND EL PASO AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HREF
MEMBERS TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AFTER
DARK IN AND AROUND EL PASO, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND
20-30 PERCENT GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR. SW NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
WILL HAVE BETTER COVERAGE OF LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT EVEN THERE
THE RAINFALL WILL BE SPARSE, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE, WITH BLOWING DUST AT LORDSBURG PLAYA A POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL ALL HELP TO RECYCLE AND REDISTRIBUTE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY), AS THE RIDGE
FURTHER BREAKS DOWN, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS, AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL IN THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO THE LOWLANDS IN THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WHILE OVERALL IMPROVED, WILL STILL BE LACKING IN THE LOWLANDS, AND
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.
MONDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE TRICKY THAN BEFORE. MODELS HINT AT
MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH A LITTLE
QUICKER, BUT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MOST NOTICEABLE IN 500 MB
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS, WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH H5
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8 TO -9C. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM, SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM AND DROP SOUTH, ASSUMING DRIER AIR
ALOFT DOESN'T OVERWHELM THINGS.
TUESDAY LOOKS COMPLICATED, WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTING, CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, BUT ALSO SOME
INFLUX OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST HELPING TO
MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE TRANSITION DAYS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DOWN A TICK OR TWO, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE BY LATE IN THE WEEK WE'LL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE WEST
COAST, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REFOCUSES OVER THE GULF COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
CONVECTION OVER THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL TRY
TO DROP INTO THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SW NEW MEXICO, AND PERHAPS WORKING TOWARDS
DMN AFTER 23Z. OTHERWISE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK AROUND LRU (ENOUGH FOR A PROB30) OR
EVEN ELP (CLOSER TO 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE) BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
BUT GUSTY WINDS AND ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOOSEN THEIR GRIP ON THE AREA
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF DRY
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS, AND ANY STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE LOWLANDS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, AND WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 74 98 / 30 30 50 20
SIERRA BLANCA 69 97 66 93 / 10 30 40 40
LAS CRUCES 72 97 67 94 / 40 40 50 20
ALAMOGORDO 72 98 66 94 / 20 30 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 55 75 49 71 / 20 40 30 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 97 67 95 / 20 40 30 30
SILVER CITY 65 92 61 91 / 30 50 30 40
DEMING 72 100 68 98 / 30 40 50 20
LORDSBURG 68 97 66 96 / 40 30 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 99 73 95 / 30 30 50 20
DELL CITY 72 100 69 95 / 10 30 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 72 97 / 10 40 50 40
LOMA LINDA 70 93 66 89 / 20 30 40 30
FABENS 73 100 71 96 / 20 30 50 20
SANTA TERESA 73 98 70 94 / 30 40 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 99 71 96 / 20 50 50 30
JORNADA RANGE 72 98 66 94 / 30 40 50 30
HATCH 72 101 67 97 / 20 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 74 100 71 97 / 30 40 50 20
OROGRANDE 72 97 67 93 / 20 40 50 30
MAYHILL 61 86 54 81 / 20 60 30 60
MESCALERO 61 87 53 82 / 20 40 30 60
TIMBERON 59 83 53 79 / 30 40 50 50
WINSTON 62 89 56 88 / 30 70 30 40
HILLSBORO 68 96 61 94 / 30 50 40 40
SPACEPORT 71 97 64 94 / 30 30 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 60 92 56 91 / 40 60 20 50
HURLEY 66 94 62 91 / 30 50 30 40
CLIFF 66 99 64 98 / 40 50 20 40
MULE CREEK 64 95 62 94 / 30 60 20 40
FAYWOOD 68 94 64 91 / 30 50 40 40
ANIMAS 69 98 66 96 / 50 50 50 40
HACHITA 69 97 66 96 / 40 40 50 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 64 94 / 40 50 60 40
CLOVERDALE 64 91 62 90 / 50 60 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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