958
FXUS64 KEPZ 100437
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RECYCLED MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING A LITTLE, BUT MOST LOWLAND
AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
TONIGHT. HRRR CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WHICH WILL HELP DO A
COUPLE THINGS FOR THE AREA - HELP COOL OFF TEMPERATURES BUT THIS
WILL ALSO BLOCK SUNLIGHT FROM HEATING THE SURFACE. SURFACE HEATING
AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES ARE HOW THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR CAN
DEVELOP MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS FORCING MECHANISM
MOSTLY GONE (IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES INDEED STICK AROUND), CAMS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MUCH MORE ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH THAT BROUGHT US HOT CONDITIONS LATELY
WILL CONTINUE TO FIZZLE AWAY TONIGHT AND IS BASICALLY GONE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
HANGING AROUND THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS TOMORROW. STORM CHANCES
LOOK PRETTY GOOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA.
PW VALUES ARE HOVERING AT NEAR NORMAL VALUES (0.9"-1.0") WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DCAPES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL
OVER 1000J/KG LEADING TO MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GENERALLY UP TO
50 MPH NEAR STORMS. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY PUSHING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
AND FINALLY LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE WITH PWS AROUND 1"-1.1". HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH LINGERING
TROUGH ENERGY NEARBY THE AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN NOTORIOUS FOR OVERPERFORMING DUE TO
THE ADDED SHEAR IT BRINGS. IN ADDITION, WE DO HAVE A BIT OF
DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT. DRIER
AIR DOES LOOK TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ADD TO THE WIND GUST
THREAT WITH STORMS IN THAT AREA, BUT WITH MOISTURE LACKING - THIS
COULD PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING. CAMS SHOW A DOWNTICK IN
ACTIVITY MONDAY BUT WITH THE ADDED OTHER INGREDIENTS, THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD OVER PERFORM. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 50 MPH NEAR
STORMS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH PWS AROUND AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONTINUED MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED PERHAPS WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING WITH STORMS. FLOW BECOMES WEAK
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL FIZZLE AWAY ANY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH ARRIVING AROUND LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
TRIES TO REESTABLISH ITSELF WHICH WOULD PUT THE MONSOONAL PLUME
OF MOISTURE SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SW. MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST
THE PLUME IS OVER US BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR NEWER DATA TO SEE
WHERE THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SET UP AS THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE PLUME WILL BE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
LINGERING SHOWERY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MUCH OF THE T-STORM THREAT NOW TOO FAR SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN OUTFLOW PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHERN NM/AZ
BORDER TRACKING WEST TO EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH COULD BRING
SOME MINOR GUSTINESS (15G25KT) TO KDMN. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY CALM AOB 10KT TONIGHT. A BIT MORE ACTIVE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE ALL TERMINALS HAVE A SHOT TO
SEE A STORM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 43KT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOOSEN THEIR GRIP ON THE AREA
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF DRY
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS, AND ANY STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE LOWLANDS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, AND WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 105 77 100 74 / 10 20 30 30
SIERRA BLANCA 99 68 97 67 / 10 10 30 30
LAS CRUCES 101 72 97 67 / 10 40 30 40
ALAMOGORDO 101 72 98 67 / 10 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 78 56 75 50 / 30 20 50 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 73 97 67 / 20 20 40 30
SILVER CITY 95 64 92 61 / 50 30 50 40
DEMING 103 71 101 67 / 10 30 30 30
LORDSBURG 101 68 97 66 / 20 40 40 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 77 99 72 / 10 20 30 30
DELL CITY 103 71 100 69 / 10 10 20 30
FORT HANCOCK 104 74 101 73 / 10 10 30 30
LOMA LINDA 96 69 92 66 / 10 10 30 30
FABENS 102 73 100 71 / 10 10 20 30
SANTA TERESA 101 73 98 70 / 10 20 30 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 102 75 99 70 / 10 30 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 101 72 97 66 / 10 40 30 40
HATCH 102 72 100 67 / 20 30 40 40
COLUMBUS 103 74 100 69 / 10 30 30 40
OROGRANDE 100 72 96 67 / 10 20 30 40
MAYHILL 89 61 86 55 / 40 20 40 20
MESCALERO 90 61 86 54 / 30 20 50 30
TIMBERON 86 59 82 54 / 20 20 30 30
WINSTON 93 61 89 55 / 30 30 50 40
HILLSBORO 101 68 96 62 / 30 40 40 40
SPACEPORT 101 69 97 64 / 20 30 40 30
LAKE ROBERTS 95 60 91 56 / 40 40 50 50
HURLEY 97 66 93 61 / 40 30 50 40
CLIFF 102 66 97 63 / 30 40 50 40
MULE CREEK 98 64 93 61 / 30 40 50 40
FAYWOOD 97 68 93 62 / 30 40 50 40
ANIMAS 101 68 97 66 / 40 50 40 30
HACHITA 101 68 97 65 / 20 40 40 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 99 67 96 64 / 30 40 40 50
CLOVERDALE 94 64 90 62 / 40 50 60 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page