107
FXUS64 KEPZ 110459
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- CONTINUED MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST.
- MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TAP SETS UP LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY AS LINGERING
TROUGH ENERGY WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING US FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
PERHAPS A BIT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERHEAD AS WELL AS A LOBE ENERGY
OFF THE HIGH WILL HELP ADD EXTRA FORCING FOR STORMS TOMORROW IN
ADDITION TO THE NORMAL FORCING MECHANISMS (TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND
DAYTIME HEATING). WE CONTINUE TO PLAY WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECTING PWS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
(GENERALLY 1"- 1.2") EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TOMORROW IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT AS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS
AS PWS MAY REACH UPWARDS OF 1.1". CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A
DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY WHICH WOULD
MAKE SENSE IF THAT DRY AIR CAN SEEP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. ALSO, THE
EFFECT OF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING SOME ADDED SHEAR TO
STORMS WHICH WOULD HELP WITH BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. IN
ADDITION, THIS DRY AIR MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH HAIL GROWTH
TOMORROW. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN WITH STORMS AS WELL TOMORROW.
BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST OF US AND WE WILL STILL BE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE IS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-1000J/KG. STORM MOTIONS LOOK
TO BE VERY SLOW (~5MPH). STORMS WILL BE MORE PRIMED TO CAUSE
FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY. WE KEEP NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AGAIN (5-8MPH). AN
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE TO WESTERN CALIFORNIA
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL INCH
WESTWARD, REDEVELOPING THE MONSOONAL PLUME LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
WILL DEFINITELY RETURN FLOODING ISSUES FROM STORMS AS PWS WELL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE (1.2"-1.4") DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHOWERY ACTIVITY HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER LEAVING QUIETER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AND BECOMES CLEAR BY AROUND NOON TOMORROW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT LOOKS LIKE
KTCS HAS THE LOWEST CHANCE TO SEE A STORM BUT KELP, KDMN, AND KLRU
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN AREA
MOUNTAINS AND THEN SE OF TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES TO DEMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND RH'S
AT OR ABOVE 15%. THERE WILL BE A DOWN TICK IN STORM COVERAGE
MIDWEEK, BUT MOISTURE RETURNS AS A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN
SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 101 74 99 74 / 20 40 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 97 67 93 64 / 30 50 40 30
LAS CRUCES 97 67 96 67 / 30 50 30 40
ALAMOGORDO 98 66 95 66 / 40 40 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 75 50 73 48 / 50 40 50 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 67 97 68 / 50 20 20 20
SILVER CITY 92 61 91 61 / 70 40 30 30
DEMING 101 67 100 67 / 40 40 20 30
LORDSBURG 97 65 97 66 / 50 40 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 73 96 73 / 20 50 20 40
DELL CITY 100 69 96 66 / 30 30 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 101 73 98 71 / 30 50 40 30
LOMA LINDA 93 67 90 65 / 30 40 20 30
FABENS 100 71 97 70 / 20 40 20 30
SANTA TERESA 98 69 95 69 / 20 50 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 99 71 97 69 / 40 40 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 97 66 95 65 / 40 40 30 40
HATCH 100 67 99 66 / 40 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 100 69 98 69 / 30 40 20 30
OROGRANDE 96 67 94 66 / 30 40 20 20
MAYHILL 86 56 82 53 / 60 40 50 30
MESCALERO 86 54 84 52 / 60 50 50 30
TIMBERON 83 54 80 52 / 40 40 50 30
WINSTON 89 55 90 53 / 70 30 20 20
HILLSBORO 96 62 96 60 / 60 40 30 30
SPACEPORT 97 64 96 63 / 40 30 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 91 56 92 56 / 80 40 30 20
HURLEY 93 62 93 61 / 60 40 30 30
CLIFF 98 62 98 63 / 70 40 20 20
MULE CREEK 94 60 93 61 / 60 40 20 20
FAYWOOD 94 63 92 63 / 60 40 30 30
ANIMAS 97 66 97 66 / 50 50 30 40
HACHITA 97 65 96 65 / 40 40 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 96 64 95 65 / 50 60 40 40
CLOVERDALE 90 62 90 63 / 60 50 40 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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