326
FXUS64 KEPZ 111149
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
549 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
- CONTINUED MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST.
- MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TAP SETS UP LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY AS LINGERING
TROUGH ENERGY WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING US FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
PERHAPS A BIT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERHEAD AS WELL AS A LOBE ENERGY
OFF THE HIGH WILL HELP ADD EXTRA FORCING FOR STORMS TOMORROW IN
ADDITION TO THE NORMAL FORCING MECHANISMS (TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND
DAYTIME HEATING). WE CONTINUE TO PLAY WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECTING PWS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
(GENERALLY 1"- 1.2") EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TOMORROW IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT AS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS
AS PWS MAY REACH UPWARDS OF 1.1". CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A
DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY WHICH WOULD
MAKE SENSE IF THAT DRY AIR CAN SEEP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. ALSO, THE
EFFECT OF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING SOME ADDED SHEAR TO
STORMS WHICH WOULD HELP WITH BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. IN
ADDITION, THIS DRY AIR MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH HAIL GROWTH
TOMORROW. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN WITH STORMS AS WELL TOMORROW.
BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH HAS PASSED EAST OF US AND WE WILL STILL BE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE IS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-1000J/KG. STORM MOTIONS LOOK
TO BE VERY SLOW (~5MPH). STORMS WILL BE MORE PRIMED TO CAUSE
FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY. WE KEEP NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AGAIN (5-8MPH). AN
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE TO WESTERN CALIFORNIA
LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL INCH
WESTWARD, REDEVELOPING THE MONSOONAL PLUME LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
WILL DEFINITELY RETURN FLOODING ISSUES FROM STORMS AS PWS WELL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE (1.2"-1.4") DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD
SHWRS ARE PROGRESSING SLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, LIKELY TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TAKE HOLD AFT 11/20Z, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF TSTMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
LOWLANDS. TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS CAN BE EXPECTED, INCLUDING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DIRECT
HITS TO TERMINALS. CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SELY GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO
25 KTS AT KELP EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL HAZARDS INCLUDING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
AN ENHANCED RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. THE AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 99 74 97 72 / 20 40 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 93 64 91 65 / 40 30 40 30
LAS CRUCES 96 67 93 66 / 30 40 20 40
ALAMOGORDO 95 66 92 66 / 20 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 73 48 69 48 / 30 30 60 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 68 92 66 / 20 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 91 61 89 60 / 30 30 60 50
DEMING 100 67 97 66 / 20 30 30 40
LORDSBURG 97 66 96 65 / 30 30 40 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 96 73 95 71 / 20 40 20 40
DELL CITY 96 66 93 68 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 98 71 96 71 / 30 30 40 30
LOMA LINDA 90 65 88 66 / 20 30 30 30
FABENS 97 70 95 70 / 20 30 20 30
SANTA TERESA 95 69 94 68 / 20 30 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 97 69 94 70 / 20 30 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 95 65 93 66 / 30 40 30 40
HATCH 99 66 96 66 / 20 20 30 40
COLUMBUS 98 69 96 68 / 20 30 30 40
OROGRANDE 94 66 91 66 / 20 20 30 30
MAYHILL 82 53 78 53 / 40 30 70 30
MESCALERO 84 52 81 53 / 30 30 60 40
TIMBERON 80 52 78 53 / 30 30 50 30
WINSTON 90 53 85 54 / 20 20 50 30
HILLSBORO 96 60 92 61 / 30 30 40 50
SPACEPORT 96 63 92 63 / 20 30 30 40
LAKE ROBERTS 92 56 90 55 / 30 20 70 50
HURLEY 93 61 90 61 / 30 30 50 40
CLIFF 98 63 97 62 / 20 20 50 40
MULE CREEK 93 61 93 60 / 20 20 50 30
FAYWOOD 92 63 89 62 / 50 30 40 40
ANIMAS 97 66 96 65 / 30 40 40 60
HACHITA 96 65 94 64 / 30 30 40 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 95 65 93 63 / 40 40 40 50
CLOVERDALE 90 63 89 63 / 40 40 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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