869
FXUS64 KEPZ 291721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
- THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GETS BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INITIALLY
BRING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
AND THEN A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THERE'S
ALREADY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PW'S ON THE 12Z EPZ
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.34" AND THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS GETTING UP TO AROUND 1.5"
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. INITIAL
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
STORMS FORM OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FAR WEST MAY MISS OUT ON THIS ROUND OF STORMS. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO BE MORE POP AND DROP WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO FALL. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER
OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GOING INTO SAT/SUN, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE
EAST AND A MORE NOTICEABLE UPPER WEAKNESS DEVELOPS AND SITS AROUND
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION FROM GFS AND CAMS
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SACS WITH BULLSEYES OF 2+" SHOWING UP. WITH THE
RECENT BURN AREAS AND FLOODING UP THERE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUES A
FLOOD WATCH. STORMS WILL THEN PUSH ONTO THE LOWLANDS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS SETS UP A NICE WIND PROFILE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SLOW STORMS MOTIONS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. MODELS SEEM TO BE DROPPING QPF AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO
RUN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, BUT WITH 1.5" PW'S AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT, STILL HAVE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING. 95TH PERCENTILES ON
THE NBM ARE IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT WITH
SOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT POTENTIALLY EXPANDING/EXTENDING
WATCH TO THE LOWLANDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA QUICKER AND BASICALLY PUTTING AN END
TO RAIN CHANCES BY MIDDAY MONDAY. NBM POPS DID SEEM HIGH UP NORTH
AND HAVEN'T CAUGHT UP TO THIS TREND, BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
NORTHERN END OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL LINGER NEAR THE MEXICO
BORDER REGION. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ALONG THE BORDER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES IT COULD VERY WELL
REMAIN DRY FOR ALL AREAS MAKING FOR A NICE LABOR DAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH A
GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S. SOME
MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS AS ADDITIONAL FEATURES
DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN120-150 THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH STORMS
PUSHING SE THROUGH THE EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS HAVE AT LEAST A
PROB30. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACS SATURDAY. IN GENERAL,
EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT WEST TO A HALF TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER EAST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY LATE MONDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND RH'S DROPPING INTO
THE 20S LOWLANDS AND 30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 91 69 83 / 60 40 70 70
SIERRA BLANCA 66 88 64 80 / 60 70 70 80
LAS CRUCES 66 88 66 82 / 70 50 60 70
ALAMOGORDO 66 88 64 80 / 60 60 50 70
CLOUDCROFT 51 64 46 57 / 70 80 60 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 88 64 84 / 50 40 40 70
SILVER CITY 61 82 61 77 / 50 50 40 80
DEMING 67 91 65 83 / 60 50 60 70
LORDSBURG 67 89 66 84 / 40 30 40 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 90 68 81 / 70 40 70 70
DELL CITY 66 89 65 80 / 50 60 60 70
FORT HANCOCK 69 92 69 85 / 60 60 70 80
LOMA LINDA 64 84 62 74 / 60 50 60 70
FABENS 69 91 68 83 / 50 40 60 70
SANTA TERESA 68 89 67 82 / 70 40 70 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 89 67 80 / 70 50 60 80
JORNADA RANGE 66 88 65 82 / 70 50 60 80
HATCH 66 90 65 82 / 60 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 68 90 67 82 / 60 40 60 60
OROGRANDE 65 87 64 78 / 60 50 50 70
MAYHILL 55 76 52 64 / 70 80 60 90
MESCALERO 55 77 51 67 / 70 70 60 90
TIMBERON 52 74 51 65 / 70 80 60 80
WINSTON 53 81 52 79 / 50 50 40 80
HILLSBORO 61 87 59 82 / 60 50 40 80
SPACEPORT 64 88 63 85 / 70 50 50 70
LAKE ROBERTS 56 82 57 77 / 50 50 40 80
HURLEY 61 84 61 78 / 50 50 40 70
CLIFF 63 90 62 87 / 30 40 30 70
MULE CREEK 61 85 60 84 / 20 30 20 60
FAYWOOD 62 84 61 77 / 60 50 50 80
ANIMAS 67 89 66 84 / 50 40 50 60
HACHITA 66 87 64 82 / 60 40 60 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 87 63 82 / 70 50 60 70
CLOVERDALE 61 82 62 81 / 60 50 60 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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